Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 58.05%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Osasuna had a probability of 20.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.52%) and 2-0 (9.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.15%), while for a Osasuna win it was 1-2 (5.42%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.
Result | ||
Villarreal | Draw | Osasuna |
58.05% ( -0.21) | 21.72% ( 0.11) | 20.23% ( 0.1) |
Both teams to score 56.32% ( -0.22) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
58.2% ( -0.37) | 41.8% ( 0.37) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.8% ( -0.37) | 64.2% ( 0.37) |
Villarreal Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.86% ( -0.19) | 14.14% ( 0.19) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
58.2% ( -0.37) | 41.79% ( 0.37) |
Osasuna Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.59% ( -0.12) | 34.41% ( 0.12) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.88% ( -0.13) | 71.12% ( 0.13) |
Score Analysis |
Villarreal | Draw | Osasuna |
2-1 @ 9.93% ( -0) 1-0 @ 9.52% ( 0.1) 2-0 @ 9.31% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 6.48% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 6.07% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 3.46% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 3.17% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 2.97% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 1.69% ( -0.03) 5-1 @ 1.24% ( -0.03) 5-0 @ 1.16% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.06% Total : 58.05% | 1-1 @ 10.15% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 5.3% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 4.86% ( 0.08) 3-3 @ 1.23% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.17% Total : 21.72% | 1-2 @ 5.42% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 5.19% ( 0.07) 0-2 @ 2.77% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 1.93% 2-3 @ 1.88% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 0.99% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.06% Total : 20.23% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Real Madrid | 38 | 29 | 8 | 1 | 87 | 26 | 61 | 95 |
2 | Barcelona | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 79 | 44 | 35 | 85 |
3 | GironaGirona | 38 | 25 | 6 | 7 | 85 | 46 | 39 | 81 |
4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 38 | 24 | 4 | 10 | 70 | 43 | 27 | 76 |
5 | Athletic Bilbao | 38 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 61 | 37 | 24 | 68 |
6 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 51 | 39 | 12 | 60 |
7 | Real BetisBetis | 38 | 14 | 15 | 9 | 48 | 45 | 3 | 57 |
8 | Villarreal | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 65 | 65 | 0 | 53 |
9 | Valencia | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 40 | 45 | -5 | 49 |
10 | AlavesAlaves | 38 | 12 | 10 | 16 | 36 | 46 | -10 | 46 |
11 | Osasuna | 38 | 12 | 9 | 17 | 45 | 56 | -11 | 45 |
12 | Getafe | 38 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 42 | 54 | -12 | 43 |
13 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 46 | 57 | -11 | 41 |
14 | Sevilla | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 48 | 54 | -6 | 41 |
15 | Mallorca | 38 | 8 | 16 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 40 |
16 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 38 | 10 | 10 | 18 | 33 | 47 | -14 | 40 |
17 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 8 | 14 | 16 | 29 | 48 | -19 | 38 |
R | CadizCadiz | 38 | 6 | 15 | 17 | 26 | 55 | -29 | 33 |
R | Almeria | 38 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 43 | 75 | -32 | 21 |
R | Granada | 38 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 38 | 79 | -41 | 21 |
> La Liga Full Table |