Championship

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Championship | Gameweek 41

Jul 4, 2020 at 3pm UK

Ewood Park

Blackburn
1 - 3
Leeds

Armstrong (48')
Walton (75')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Bamford (7'), Phillips (40'), Klich (53')
Klich (25'), Ayling (28')

Preview: Blackburn Rovers vs. Leeds United - prediction, team news, lineups

By Darren Plant, Senior Reporter | 02 July 2020

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship game between Blackburn Rovers and Leeds United, including team news and predicted lineups.

Leeds United make the trip to Ewood Park to face Blackburn Rovers on Saturday evening holding a six-point advantage in the Championship promotion race.

Meanwhile, Blackburn welcome the league leaders on the back of successive defeats, results which have left Rovers five points adrift of the playoffs.

Match preview

Leeds boss Marcelo Bielsa pops a squat on February 15, 2020 © Reuters

Having failed to record maximum points against lowly Luton Town on Tuesday night, there are suggestions that Leeds are beginning to lose momentum at the top of the standings.

However, despite the disappointment of the result at Elland Road, Marcelo Bielsa will remain optimistic that the Yorkshire giants can get over the line with regards to promotion to the Premier League.

The draw, against quickly-improving opposition, made it four points from two matches, leaving Leeds six points clear of third-placed Brentford with half a dozen matches remaining.

Although their goal difference is inferior to the teams below them, Leeds know that another three points would increase the pressure on West Bromwich Albion and the Bees.

Bielsa will also recognise that Leeds have no current top-six sides on their schedule, theoretically providing his side with a more favourable run-in than their nearest challengers.

From Blackburn's perspective, taking on a team of Leeds' standing may act as the catalyst which they desperately require to get themselves back into the playoff picture.

Despite returning after lockdown with a 3-1 success over Bristol City, back-to-back defeats at Wigan Athletic and Barnsley have left Rovers five points adrift of the top six.

Although Tony Mowbray will feel that his side are capable of getting back on track, there will be an acknowledgement that it needs to be this weekend with Cardiff City and Derby County currently on lengthy unbeaten streaks.

With Blackburn taking on the first of those sides next week, it leaves the North-West outfit under pressure to avoid heading into that contest on the back of four defeats from five outings.

Blackburn Rovers Championship form: DDLWLL

Leeds United Championship form: WWWLWD

Team News

Leeds United's Pablo Hernandez pictured in February 2020 © Reuters

Having began the game with Luton on the substitutes' bench, Pablo Hernandez should be handed a recall to the Leeds starting lineup.

Bielsa may also consider reintroducing Ezgjan Alioski back into the team after he provided the assist for Leeds' equaliser against the Hatters.

Blackburn will be without Ben Brereton, who was dismissed versus Barnsley just seven minutes after being sent on as a substitute.

With Rovers having failed to make an impact in the final third last time out, Sam Gallagher and Danny Graham are both pushing for recalls.

Joe Rankin-Costello will be assessed as he continues to deal with a hamstring problem.

Blackburn Rovers possible starting lineup:
Walton; Nyambe, Adarabioyo, Mulgrew, Bennett; Downing, Johnson, Rothwell; Samuel, Gallagher, Armstrong

Leeds United possible starting lineup:
Meslier; Ayling, White, Cooper, Dallas; Phillips, Klich, Hernandez; Costa, Harrison, Bamford

We say: Blackburn Rovers 1-2 Leeds United

Although Leeds have been far from convincing since the resumption, we have to back Bielsa's side to get the better of Blackburn, who have struggled to show the same kind of form and resilience which they displayed before the enforced break.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 51.26%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Blackburn Rovers had a probability of 24.16%.

The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.59%) and 0-2 (9.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.68%), while for a Blackburn Rovers win it was 1-0 (7.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Leeds United would win this match.