Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 38

May 21, 2022 at 8pm UK

Stade Velodrome

Marseille
4 - 0
Strasbourg

Gerson (32', 89'), Under (73'), Bakambu (90+2')
Caleta-Car (34'), Gueye (86')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Sissoko (75')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Ligue 1 clash between Marseille and Strasbourg, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Marseille

Last Six:

Last Game: Marseille 4-0 Strasbourg
Saturday, May 21 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Paris Saint-Germain	38	54	86
2	Marseille	38	25	71
3	Monaco	38	25	69

Strasbourg

Last Six:

Last Game: Marseille 4-0 Strasbourg
Saturday, May 21 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
5	Rennes	38	42	66
6	Strasbourg	38	17	63
7	Lens	38	14	62

We said: Marseille 1-1 Strasbourg

Marseille's levels of creative ingenuity and attacking incisiveness decrease dramatically when Payet is not on the pitch, and Strasbourg would do well to capitalise on this opportunity at a ground where the hosts have not enjoyed a strong period of success. That being said, Stephan's side have not dominated many games in recent memory and have developed an affinity for draws on the road, so we can envisage this battle ending all square as Marseille clinch a top-three spot, while Strasbourg will nervously learn of results elsewhere. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 49.05%. A win for Strasbourg had a probability of 25.75% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.42%) and 2-0 (8.83%). The likeliest Strasbourg win was 0-1 (7.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.98%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
Marseille	Draw	Strasbourg
49.05% ( 1.55)	25.2% ( -0.06)	25.75% ( -1.5)

Both teams to score 51.94% (

-1.07)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.09% (

-0.81)

50.9% (

0.81)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.22% (

-0.71)

72.78% (

0.71)

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.23% (

0.34)

20.77% (

-0.34)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.58% (

0.53)

53.41% (

-0.53)

Strasbourg Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.56% (

-1.64)

34.44% (

1.64)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.85% (

-1.79)

71.15% (

1.78)

Score Analysis

Marseille 49.05%

Strasbourg 25.75%

Draw 25.19%

Marseille	Draw	Strasbourg
1-0 @ 11.24% ( 0.47) 2-1 @ 9.42% ( 0.08) 2-0 @ 8.83% ( 0.46) 3-1 @ 4.93% ( 0.09) 3-0 @ 4.63% ( 0.29) 3-2 @ 2.63% ( -0.07) 4-1 @ 1.94% ( 0.06) 4-0 @ 1.82% ( 0.13) 4-2 @ 1.03% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.57% Total : 49.05%	1-1 @ 11.98% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 7.15% ( 0.23) 2-2 @ 5.02% ( -0.19) 3-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.19%	0-1 @ 7.63% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 6.39% ( -0.31) 0-2 @ 4.06% ( -0.24) 1-3 @ 2.27% ( -0.22) 2-3 @ 1.78% ( -0.15) 0-3 @ 1.44% ( -0.16) Other @ 2.18% Total : 25.75%