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Championship | Gameweek 32

Feb 23, 2021 at 7.45pm UK

Kenilworth Road Stadium

Luton
1 - 1
Millwall

Adebayo (55')
Tunnicliffe (50'), Sluga (76')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Evans (90+5')
Hutchinson (15')

Preview: Luton Town vs. Millwall - prediction, team news, lineups

By Olly Allen | 21 February 2021

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Championship clash between Luton Town and Millwall, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Millwall will be aiming to continue their unbeaten run in the Championship when they travel to Luton Town on Tuesday.

The Lions, who sit 11th in the table, have not lost in their last eight league games, the longest current streak of any side in the division.

Match preview

Millwall's Scott Malone celebrates scoring their second goal on February 6, 2021 © Reuters

Millwall had won three games in a row heading into their home game against bottom of the table Wycombe Wanderers on Saturday but drew 0-0 against the Chairboys to cool their playoff ambitions.

The match brought their 15th draw in the Championship this season – the most in the division – and leaves them seven points behind the top six; they have a potentially crucial meeting with 10th-placed Barnsley after their trip to Luton.

Only six sides in the second tier have picked up more points away from home than Millwall (23) this season and only three clubs have conceded fewer goals on the road than the Lions (14).

The impressive form has helped contribute to Gary Rowett's side having the fourth-best defence in the Championship this season, with only promotion-pushing Norwich City, Swansea City and Watford letting in fewer goals. Meanwhile, the goalless draw with Wycombe was Bartosz Bialkowski's 13th clean sheet – only Freddie Woodman has more.

Luton Town manager Nathan Jones pictured in October 2020 © Reuters

It could be a tricky evening for Luton as the Hatters have scored just three goals in eight league games in 2021 – the fewest of any Championship side.

The home side are currently on a run of only three wins in their last 12 league matches, which has seen their own playoff hopes fall by the wayside. Nathan Jones's men are now 16th and closer to the bottom three (eight points) than they are to the top six (12 points).

The Bedfordshire side were beaten 3-0 by Stoke City on Saturday afternoon, ensuring a miserable return to the bet365 Stadium for Jones, and the Welshman described it as "our worst performance I have ever had as Luton manager".

The Hatters have not won against Millwall in their last eight attempts, meanwhile, last beating the Lions in 2005. The South London side comfortably won 2-0 in this season's reverse fixture in October and perhaps should have scored more.

Luton Town Championship form: LLDWLL
Luton Town form (all competitions): LLDWLL

Millwall Championship form: DDWWWD

Team News

Millwall manager Gary Rowett pictured in September 2020 © Reuters

Matty Pearson is in contention to return to the Luton side after missing the defeat to Stoke with a hamstring problem, but fellow defender Tom Lockyer is out for two weeks with an ankle injury.

Jones is likely to make changes after the Hatters' poor performance on Saturday, with George Moncur and Joe Morrell pushing to be named in the starting lineup, while there could be a first start for January signing Elijah Adebayo.

Millwall are currently suffering a slight injury crisis, with Murray Wallace, Ryan Leonard, Kenneth Zohore, Jake Cooper and Connor Mahoney all currently sidelined.

In more positive news, Maikel Kieftenbeld could be available after missing the Lions' last three games, while Shaun Williams has been given an injection enabling him to play despite a broken toe.

Luton Town possible starting lineup:
Sluga; Pearson, Cranie, Bradley, Potts; Moncur, Rea, Dewsbury-Hall; Cornick, Collins, Adebayo

Millwall possible starting lineup:
Bialkowski; Hutchinson, Pearce, Evans; Romeo, Woods, Kieftenbeld, Malone; Wallace, Bodvarsson, Bennett

SM words green background

We say: Luton Town 0-1 Millwall

Luton are struggling for form so a visit from a Millwall side that are tough to beat would not have been Jones's ideal fixture; neither team tend to net too many goals so we are predicting a low-scoring away win.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Millwall win with a probability of 43.82%. A win for Luton Town had a probability of 28.26% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Millwall win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.58%) and 1-2 (8.51%). The likeliest Luton Town win was 1-0 (9.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.