Both teams exceeded expectations in the regular season, and they each have a solid midfield shape and match-winners that can make the difference up front.
If the match is as close as we anticipate, it could come down to penalties, giving the visitors the edge as Tim Melia has won all seven shootouts that he has been a part of in his professional career.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Houston Dynamo win with a probability of 57.86%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Sporting Kansas City had a probability of 20.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a Houston Dynamo win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.23%) and 2-0 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.05%), while for a Sporting Kansas City win it was 1-2 (5.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Houston Dynamo would win this match.
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