Parma square off against already-relegated Brescia on Saturday afternoon with fresh hope of ending the season in the top half of the Serie A standings.

Meanwhile, the away defeat to Lecce in midweek has condemned the home side to a return to the second tier after just one campaign back in the top flight.

Match preview

Parma boss Roberto D'Aversa pictured in September 2018 © Reuters

After suffering six defeats in seven outings, Parma boss Roberto D'Aversa would have been forgiven for thinking that his players would struggle to get the better of an in-form Napoli side on Wednesday evening.

However, in a fixture which featured three penalties, Parma prevailed by a 2-1 scoreline with the decisive strike coming just three minutes from time.

The goal from Dejan Kulusevski, his eighth of the season, has moved his team from 13th spot to 10th, just five points adrift of a Sassuolo outfit who are beginning to falter.

Reaching that target is probably unrealistic now that just three fixtures remain on the schedule, and Parma will no doubt be satisfied with enjoying their best campaign since 2013-14.

Nevertheless, with games to come against Brescia and Lecce, D'Aversa will acknowledge that there is a window of opportunity to further improve on what has already been a solid 11 months.

From Brescia's perspective, they will be ready for the season to end after having their relegation back to Serie A confirmed in midweek.

Although the home side have recorded more points than their next opponents over the past six matches, a fourth defeat in sixth has left 17th-placed Genoa out of their reach.

With eight points separating them to Lecce and a five-point advantage being held over last-placed SPAL, Diego Lopez will naturally feel that 19th place is a near certainty regardless of their efforts in their remaining matches.

However, braced for life without star man Sandro Tonali, it gives Lopez a chance to take a look at players who can help I Biancazzurri get back into Serie A as soon as possible.

Brescia Serie A form: WLLLWL

Parma Serie A form: LLDLLW

Team News

Brescia midfielder Sandro Tonali pictured in October 2019 © Reuters

With Brescia relying on the funds generated from Tonali's sale in the summer, the midfielder may be rested for this contest.

That could result in Birkir Bjarnason being provided with a start, while Ales Mateju is in contention to replace Andrea Papetti at the back.

Kulusevski is expected to come back into the Parma XI after beginning the last game as a substitute.

Roberto Inglese may also be handed a recall, potentially as a replacement for Gianluca Caprari.

Brescia possible starting lineup:
Joronen; Sabelli, Mateju, Chancellor, Mangraviti; Zmrhal, Bjarnason, Dessena, Martella; Torregrossa, Donnarumma

Parma possible starting lineup:
Sepe; Darmian, Dermaku, Alves, Pezzella; Kulusevski, Brugman, Grassi, Kurtic, Karamoh; Inglese

We say: Brescia 1-3 Parma

With Parma now back on track, we must go with the away side this weekend. While Brescia will want to confirm 19th spot as soon as possible, we cannot see them being able to raise their game to earn anything from this contest.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brescia win with a probability of 41.75%. A win for Parma had a probability of 32.96% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brescia win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.86%) and 2-0 (6.87%). The likeliest Parma win was 0-1 (8.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood.