Premier League

Premier League | Gameweek 34

Apr 23, 2022 at 12.30pm UK

Emirates Stadium

Arsenal
3 - 1
Man Utd

Tavares (3'), Saka (32' pen.), Xhaka (70')
Xhaka (67'), Tavares (68'), Elneny (80')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Ronaldo (34')
Telles (31'), Fernandes (76'), Lindelof (82'), Ronaldo (90+2')

Bukayo Saka breaks Premier League penalty record in Manchester United win

Bukayo Saka becomes the youngest player to score penalties in back-to-back Premier League games in Arsenal's 3-1 win over Manchester United at the Emirates.

Apr 23, 14:44

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Arsenal

Last Six:

Last Game: Arsenal 5-1 Everton
Sunday, May 22 at 4pm in Premier League

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
4	Tottenham Hotspur	38	29	71
5	Arsenal	38	13	69
6	Manchester United	38	0	58

Manchester United

Last Six:

Last Game: Crystal Palace 1-0 Man Utd
Sunday, May 22 at 4pm in Premier League

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
5	Arsenal	38	13	69
6	Manchester United	38	0	58
7	West Ham United	38	9	56

We said: Arsenal 2-1 Manchester United

The expected return of Ronaldo to the frontline should at least give Man United that extra attacking bite, but as much as the Portuguese loves a goal against the Gunners, it remains to be seen if he is in the right headspace to play. If Arsenal's new-look side can produce similar levels of incisiveness that they did against Chelsea, Man United's dodgy backline could be in for a rough ride against Arteta's side, and we can only envisage the Gunners effectively ending the Red Devils' top-four hopes while giving theirs a major boost. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 54.3%. A win for Manchester United had a probability of 23.49% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.58%) and 2-0 (8.22%). The likeliest Manchester United win was 1-2 (6.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.

Result
Arsenal	Draw	Manchester United
54.3%	22.21%	23.49%

Both teams to score 59.34%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.02%

39.98%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.66%

62.34%

Arsenal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.28%

14.72%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.08%

42.91%

Manchester United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.58%

30.42%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.38%

66.62%

Score Analysis

Arsenal 54.3%

Manchester United 23.49%

Draw 22.2%

Arsenal	Draw	Manchester United
2-1 @ 9.78% 1-0 @ 8.58% 2-0 @ 8.22% 3-1 @ 6.25% 3-0 @ 5.25% 3-2 @ 3.72% 4-1 @ 2.99% 4-0 @ 2.52% 4-2 @ 1.78% 5-1 @ 1.15% 5-0 @ 0.96% Other @ 3.11% Total : 54.3%	1-1 @ 10.2% 2-2 @ 5.82% 0-0 @ 4.48% 3-3 @ 1.48% Other @ 0.23% Total : 22.2%	1-2 @ 6.08% 0-1 @ 5.33% 0-2 @ 3.17% 1-3 @ 2.41% 2-3 @ 2.31% 0-3 @ 1.26% Other @ 2.94% Total : 23.49%