Premier League

Premier League | Gameweek 14

Dec 1, 2021 at 8.15pm UK

Villa Park

Aston Villa
1 - 2
Man City

Watkins (47')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Dias (27'), Silva (43')

Pep Guardiola hails Bernardo Silva as best player in Premier League

Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola labels Bernardo Silva as the best player in the Premier League, following their 2-1 win away against Aston Villa on Wednesday.

Dec 2, 11:06

Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola celebrates on November 24, 2021

Pep Guardiola smashes Sir Alex Ferguson record with Aston Villa win

Pep Guardiola breaks a Premier League record previously set by Sir Alex Ferguson, after Manchester City beat Aston Villa 2-1 away from home on Wednesday night.

Dec 2, 00:01

The Match

We said: Aston Villa 1-2 Manchester City

City may have produced a number of goal-laden performances against Villa down the years, but this will be no cakewalk for the champions as the Gerrard revolution aims to gather momentum. Guardiola's hand may be forced in a fatigued attack, but the visitors should still have enough to take all three points back to the Etihad. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 68.81%. A draw had a probability of 18.5% and a win for Aston Villa had a probability of 12.66%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.65%) and 1-2 (9.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.79%), while for an Aston Villa win it was 1-0 (3.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Manchester City in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Manchester City.

Result
Aston Villa	Draw	Manchester City
12.66%	18.53%	68.81%

Both teams to score 49.99%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.34%

41.66%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.94%

64.06%

Aston Villa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

56.19%

43.81%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

20.03%

79.97%

Manchester City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

88.97%

11.03%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

64.65%

35.35%

Score Analysis

Aston Villa 12.66%

Manchester City 68.8%

Draw 18.53%

Aston Villa	Draw	Manchester City
1-0 @ 3.99% 2-1 @ 3.63% 2-0 @ 1.65% 3-2 @ 1.1% 3-1 @ 1% Other @ 1.3% Total : 12.66%	1-1 @ 8.79% 0-0 @ 4.83% 2-2 @ 4% Other @ 0.91% Total : 18.53%	0-2 @ 11.74% 0-1 @ 10.65% 1-2 @ 9.69% 0-3 @ 8.63% 1-3 @ 7.12% 0-4 @ 4.76% 1-4 @ 3.93% 2-3 @ 2.94% 0-5 @ 2.1% 1-5 @ 1.73% 2-4 @ 1.62% Other @ 3.9% Total : 68.8%