Primeira Liga | Gameweek 14

Dec 16, 2023 at 6pm UK

Estadio Municipal de Arouca

Arouca
3 - 0
Gil Vicente

Mujica (45+1', 61', 78')
Mujica (38'), Esgaio (85')

FT(HT: 1-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Arouca and Gil Vicente, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Arouca

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Arouca 2-2 Rio Ave
Sunday, December 10 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Gil Vicente

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Gil Vicente 1-1 Moreirense
Monday, December 11 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

We said: Arouca 2-1 Gil Vicente

While both sides have been far from impressive this season, it is difficult to make much of a case for the visitors, who have not earned a single point on the road this season and have not won an away match since March. Arouca showed real fighting spirit to come back from two goals down against Rio Ave last week, and we feel they can follow that up with another positive result in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 37.86%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 36.76% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.4%) and 0-2 (6.09%). The likeliest Arouca win was 1-0 (8.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.

Result
Arouca	Draw	Gil Vicente
36.76% ( -0.03)	25.37% ( 0)	37.86% ( 0.03)

Both teams to score 56.43% (

-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.63% (

-0.02)

47.37% (

0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.41% (

-0.02)

69.58% (

0.01)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.82% (

-0.03)

25.18% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.09% (

-0.04)

59.9% (

0.03)

Gil Vicente Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.42% (

0.01)

24.58% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.93% (

0.01)

59.07% (

-0.01)

Score Analysis

Arouca 36.76%

Gil Vicente 37.86%

Draw 25.36%

Arouca	Draw	Gil Vicente
1-0 @ 8.54% ( -0) 2-1 @ 8.26% ( -0) 2-0 @ 5.89% ( -0) 3-1 @ 3.8% ( -0) 3-0 @ 2.71% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.66% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.31% ( -0) 4-0 @ 0.93% ( -0) 4-2 @ 0.92% ( -0) Other @ 1.76% Total : 36.76%	1-1 @ 11.97% 0-0 @ 6.19% ( 0) 2-2 @ 5.8% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.25% ( -0) Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.36%	0-1 @ 8.69% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 8.4% ( 0) 0-2 @ 6.09% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 3.93% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.85% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.71% 1-4 @ 1.38% ( 0) 0-4 @ 1% ( 0) 2-4 @ 0.95% Other @ 1.86% Total : 37.86%