Primeira Liga | Gameweek 23

Feb 19, 2022 at 8.30pm UK

Estadio D Afonso Henriques

Guimaraes
1 - 3
Arouca

Estupinan (26')
Luz (67'), Quaresma (80'), Janvier (86'), Fernandes (88')

FT(HT: 1-3)

Basso (13'), Antony (35'), Bukia (41')
Kouassi (27'), Galovic (48'), Simao (70'), Silva (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Vitoria de Guimaraes and Arouca, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

We said: Vitoria de Guimaraes 2-0 Arouca

Vitoria de Guimaraes will be looking to restore some pride after their shocking defeat at the hands of rock-bottom Belenenses last time out. They will fancy their chances against an out-of-sorts Arouca side who have managed just one win from their last 10 outings in all competitions. The hosts are also unbeaten in each of their last 10 encounters with the Arouquenses and we are backing them to extend their dominance and bounce back to winning ways this weekend. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 51.23%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 24.56% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.64%) and 2-0 (8.88%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (6.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.

Result
Vitoria de Guimaraes	Draw	Arouca
51.23%	24.22%	24.56%

Both teams to score 53.84%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.17%

47.83%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.98%

70.02%

Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.33%

18.67%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.99%

50.01%

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.21%

33.79%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.54%

70.46%

Score Analysis

Vitoria de Guimaraes 51.22%

Arouca 24.56%

Draw 24.21%

Vitoria de Guimaraes	Draw	Arouca
1-0 @ 10.58% 2-1 @ 9.64% 2-0 @ 8.88% 3-1 @ 5.39% 3-0 @ 4.97% 3-2 @ 2.93% 4-1 @ 2.26% 4-0 @ 2.09% 4-2 @ 1.23% Other @ 3.26% Total : 51.22%	1-1 @ 11.48% 0-0 @ 6.31% 2-2 @ 5.23% 3-3 @ 1.06% Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.21%	0-1 @ 6.85% 1-2 @ 6.23% 0-2 @ 3.71% 1-3 @ 2.25% 2-3 @ 1.89% 0-3 @ 1.34% Other @ 2.28% Total : 24.56%