Champions League

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Champions League | Group Stage

Nov 4, 2020 at 8pm UK

Red Bull Arena

RB Leipzig
2 - 1
PSG

Nkunku (42'), Forsberg (57' pen.)
Upamecano (15'), Konate (25')

FT(HT: 1-1)

di Maria (6')
Kimpembe (19'), Gueye (37'), Kurzawa (68')
Gueye (69'), Kimpembe (90+5')

Preview: RB Leipzig vs. Paris Saint-Germain - prediction, team news, lineups

By Brett Curtis, Reporter | 02 November 2020

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League match between RB Leipzig and Paris Saint-Germain, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

RB Leipzig entertain Paris Saint-Germain on Wednesday in Group H of the Champions League, with both sides desperate to win after being defeated by Manchester United.

The two sides met as recently as August in the semi final of this competition, with PSG comfortably winning 3-0.

Match preview

RB Leipzig defender Dayot Upamecano pictured on August 13, 2020 © Reuters

Julian Nagelsmann's side were ruthlessly dismantled by Man Utd at Old Trafford on matchday two, losing 5-0 after a rudderless performance in which substitute Marcus Rashford scored a second-half hat-trick.

Dayot Upamecano, who rightly received mass plaudits for his performances in this competition last season, was made to look very average indeed by Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's side's lightning counter attacks.

With both forthcoming opponents level on points having both beaten Istanbul Basaksehir 2-0, this is a massive match for Leipzig if they are to have any chance of progressing to the knockout stages for a second successive season.

Nagelsmann will certainly need a much better performance from his players than when his side lost 3-0 to PSG in August, with Angel Di Maria in particular running the show that evening.

Neymar in action for PSG on October 24, 2020 © Reuters

Thomas Tuchel's side suffered defeat to Man Utd themselves, of course, albeit in much more marginal fashion with Rashford's late winner earning his side a 2-1 win at Le Parc des Princes.

PSG did bounce back on matchday two with a 2-0 win in Istanbul, with Kylian Mbappe twice assisting loanee Moise Kean in the second half, but have plenty of work to do to ensure they do not fail to progress to the knockout stages for the first time in the Qatari-owned era.

Tuchel will not be encouraged by the fact Neymar and Di Maria are both doubtful for the match, especially with the duo excellent in the victory over Leipzig in August.

Kean and Mbappe may well need to be in top form together once again if they are to secure a crucial win.

RB Leipzig Champions League form: WL
RB Leipzig form (all competitions): WWWWLL

Paris Saint-Germain Champions League form: LW
Paris Saint-Germain form (all competitions): WWLWWW

Team News

RB Leipzig coach Julian Nagelsmann on March 10, 2020 © Reuters

Nagelsmann will be without Marcel Halstenberg (muscular), Fabrice Hartmann (knee), Lucas Klostermann (knee) and Konrad Laimer (ankle) for the visit of PSG.

Emil Forsberg was a substitute in the weekend's 1-0 defeat at Borussia Monchengladbach, but is likely to return to the side here.

Tuchel is without several players for the trip to Leipzig, with Mauro Icardi (knee), Leandro Paredes (knock), Marco Verratti (bicep), Julian Draxler (hamstring), Neymar (hamstring), Juan Bernat (cruciate ligament rupture) and Alexandre Letellier (coronavirus) all unavailable for selection.

With Di Maria also a doubt, Pablo Sarabia may join Mbappe and Kean in the front three.

RB Leipzig possible starting lineup:
Gulasci; Henrichs, Orban, Upamecano, Angelino; Kampl, Sabitzer; Nkunku, Forsberg, Olmo; Poulsen

Paris Saint-Germain possible starting lineup:
Navas; Florenzi, Diallo, Kimpembe, Kurzawa; Herrera, Marquinhos, Gueye; Sarabia, Kean, Mbappe

SM words green background

We say: RB Leipzig 2-2 Paris Saint-Germain

With both sides missing key players, we can see an entertaining score draw playing out here with neither side wishing to lose ground on each other in the race to progress to the knockout stages.

With Neymar injured, the fitness of Di Maria will be a crucial factor in order to provide a world-class link from midfield to attack.

Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 58.38%. A win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 22.28% and a draw had a probability of 19.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (7.1%) and 0-2 (6.4%). The likeliest RB Leipzig win was 2-1 (5.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.