Roma and Bodo/Glimt square off in the Europa Conference League on Thursday evening knowing that victory will put them on the brink of reaching the knockout stages.

The game at Stadio Olimpico takes place just two weeks since the Norwegian outfit recorded a shock 6-1 victory over the Italian giants in Scandinavia.

Match preview

Roma coach Jose Mourinho looks on on October 17, 2021 © Reuters

At a time when his Roma side sit in fourth position in the Serie A standings, Jose Mourinho will argue that he does not deserve to be criticised over his side's recent results.

However, on the back of five defeats from 10 games in all competitions and the Portuguese having been heavily critical of his backup players, things are anything but rosy.

Ahead of attempting to gain revenge for the humiliation of two weeks ago, Mourinho is also smarting from losing his long-standing unbeaten home record in Serie A.

Progression in this competition is secondary to remaining in the top four in Italy's top flight, but there is a feeling that Mourinho could name a strong team for the fixture at Stadio Olimpico.

Tammy Abraham may be handed his first start in this competition in a bid to end his seven-game run without finding the back of the net.

Before the start of the group stages, the general consensus was that Bodo/Glimt were competing to finish as runners-up to their next opponents.

However, success in Rome this week will put them on the brink of securing top spot, and belief will be high after their demolition of Mourinho's men in Norway.

Four second-half goals blew away their more illustrious opponents, Bodo/Glimt since extending their unbeaten run in all competitions to 18 matches.

Kjetil Knutsen's side have also recently widened their lead at the top of Norway's top flight to seven points with five games remaining.

Roma Europa Conference League form:

Roma form (all competitions):

Bodo/Glimt Europa Conference League form:

Bodo/Glimt form (all competitions):

Team News

Tammy Abraham celebrates scoring for Roma in September 2021 © Reuters

Abraham will hope to get the nod over Eldor Shomurodov, while Stephan El Shaarawy and Carles Perez are in line to return to the Roma XI.

Marash Kumbulla is an option in the middle of the defence, potentially taking the place of Gianluca Mancini.

While Riccardo Calafiori may feature at left-back, the remainder of the team could stay the same given the level of performance produced two weeks ago.

Knutsen is expected to name a side similar to the one which started the reverse fixture between the clubs.

Patrick Berg will likely miss out through injury with Hugo Vetlesen in line to deputise for the Norway international.

Roma possible starting lineup:
Patricio; Karsdorp, Kumbulla, Ibanez, Calafiori; Cristante, Veretout; Perez, Pellegrini, El Shaarawy; Abraham

Bodo/Glimt possible starting lineup:
Haikin; Sampsted, Moe, Lode, Bjorkan; Vetlesen, Hagen, Konradsen; Solbakken, Botheim, Pellegrino

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We say: Roma 2-1 Bodo/Glimt

With Mourinho likely to be torn with his team selection, this is a difficult match to predict. Nevertheless, with the home crowd behind them, Roma should have enough quality at both ends of the pitch to edge this contest.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 54.78%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Bodo/Glimt had a probability of 18.99%.

The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.72%) and 2-1 (8.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.9%), while for a Bodo/Glimt win it was 0-1 (7.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood.