Progreso

4 - 2

Rampla

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Progreso win with a probability of 41.9%. A win for Rampla Juniors had a probability of 30.13% and a draw had a probability of 28%.

The most likely scoreline for a Progreso win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.37%) and 2-0 (8.05%). The likeliest Rampla Juniors win was 0-1 (10.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.08%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Progreso would win this match.