World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage

Sep 9, 2023 at 1.45am UK

Estadio Jornalista Mario Filho

Brazil
5 - 1
Bolivia

Rodrygo (24', 53'), Raphinha (47'), Neymar (61', 90+3')
Neymar (21')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Abrego (78')
Moreno (18'), Ursino (69')

Neymar surpasses Pele scoring record for Brazil

Neymar overtakes Pele as the outright leading scorer in the history of the Brazilian men's team courtesy of a brace in their 5-1 World Cup qualifying win over Bolivia.

Sep 9, 10:37

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Brazil and Bolivia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole looks at how Brazil could line up for Friday's World Cup qualifier against Bolivia in Belem.

Form, Standings, Stats

Brazil

All competitions

Last Game: Brazil 2-4 Senegal
Tuesday, June 20 at 8pm in International Friendlies

Current Group G Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Brazil	3	2	6
2	Switzerland	3	1	6
3	Cameroon	3	0	4
4	Serbia	3	-3	1

Bolivia

All competitions

Last Game: Bolivia 1-2 Panama
Sunday, August 27 at 9pm in International Friendlies

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	4	5	10
2	Uruguay	4	2	7
3	Paraguay	4	2	6
4	Chile	4	-1	5
5	Bolivia	4	-8	0

Brazil's incredible record of having never lost a home World Cup qualifier should come under no threat from a Bolivia side which is notoriously woeful away from La Paz. With no wins in 64 away qualifiers, Bolivia are extremely unlikely to halt that dreadful record against one of the powerhouses of international football, and another hefty defeat at the hands of Brazil is on the cards. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brazil win with a probability of 86.43%. A draw had a probability of 10.1% and a win for Bolivia had a probability of 3.49%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brazil win was 2-0 with a probability of 15.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (14.44%) and 1-0 (10.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.66%), while for a Bolivia win it was 0-1 (1.64%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Brazil would win this match.

Result
Brazil	Draw	Bolivia
86.43% ( 1.33)	10.08% ( -0.88)	3.49% ( -0.46)

Both teams to score 33.22% (

-0.67)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

63.64% (

1.75)

36.36% (

-1.76)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

41.5% (

1.89)

58.49% (

-1.89)

Brazil Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

94.18% (

0.61)

5.82% (

-0.61)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

77.63% (

1.71)

22.36% (

-1.71)

Bolivia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

35.27% (

-0.95)

64.73% (

0.94)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

7.11% (

-0.42)

92.88% (

0.42)

Score Analysis

Brazil 86.42%

Bolivia 3.49%

Draw 10.08%

Brazil	Draw	Bolivia
2-0 @ 15.23% ( -0.21) 3-0 @ 14.44% ( 0.32) 1-0 @ 10.71% ( -0.54) 4-0 @ 10.26% ( 0.57) 2-1 @ 6.63% ( -0.32) 3-1 @ 6.28% ( -0.07) 5-0 @ 5.84% ( 0.52) 4-1 @ 4.47% ( 0.11) 6-0 @ 2.77% ( 0.34) 5-1 @ 2.54% ( 0.15) 3-2 @ 1.37% ( -0.06) 6-1 @ 1.21% ( 0.11) 7-0 @ 1.13% ( 0.17) 4-2 @ 0.97% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.58% Total : 86.42%	1-1 @ 4.66% ( -0.4) 0-0 @ 3.77% ( -0.34) 2-2 @ 1.44% ( -0.12) Other @ 0.21% Total : 10.08%	0-1 @ 1.64% ( -0.21) 1-2 @ 1.01% ( -0.13) Other @ 0.84% Total : 3.49%