World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage

Nov 21, 2023 at 11.30pm UK

Estadio de Liga Deportiva Universitaria

Ecuador
1 - 0
Chile

Mena (21')
Torres (36'), Preciado (61')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Pulgar (44'), Echeverria (62')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Ecuador and Chile, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ecuador

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Venezuela 0-0 Ecuador
Thursday, November 16 at 10pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	5	5	12
2	Uruguay	5	5	10
3	Colombia	5	2	9
4	Venezuela	5	3	8
5	Ecuador	5	1	8
6	Brazil	5	2	7
7	Paraguay	5	-1	5
8	Chile	5	-3	5
9	Bolivia	5	-7	3
10	Peru	5	-7	1

Chile

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Chile 0-0 Paraguay
Friday, November 17 at 12.30am in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	5	5	12
2	Uruguay	5	5	10
3	Colombia	5	2	9
4	Venezuela	5	3	8
5	Ecuador	5	1	8
6	Brazil	5	2	7
7	Paraguay	5	-1	5
8	Chile	5	-3	5
9	Bolivia	5	-7	3
10	Peru	5	-7	1

Ecuador have been steady if not spectacular so far and will expect to claim another result against a Chile side in disarray. The visitors will have to regroup quickly after the resignation of their manager just a few days ago, and an away trip to a side notoriously stingy in defence is not the ideal fixture. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 47.17%. A draw had a probability of 29.6% and a win for Chile had a probability of 23.19%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.24%) and 2-1 (7.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.42%), while for a Chile win it was 0-1 (10.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 16.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Ecuador in this match.

Result
Ecuador	Draw	Chile
47.17% ( -0.38)	29.64% ( 0.1)	23.19% ( 0.28)

Both teams to score 38.17% (

0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

32.55% (

-0.1)

67.44% (

0.09)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

14.43% (

-0.06)

85.56% (

0.06)

Ecuador Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.94% (

-0.25)

29.06% (

0.24)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.02% (

-0.31)

64.97% (

0.3)

Chile Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

53.81% (

0.23)

46.19% (

-0.23)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

18.13% (

0.17)

81.86% (

-0.18)

Score Analysis

Ecuador 47.15%

Chile 23.18%

Draw 29.63%

Ecuador	Draw	Chile
1-0 @ 16.58% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 10.24% ( -0.11) 2-1 @ 7.92% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 4.22% ( -0.07) 3-1 @ 3.26% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 1.3% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 1.26% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.01% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.36% Total : 47.15%	0-0 @ 13.42% ( 0.05) 1-1 @ 12.81% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 3.06% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.34% Total : 29.63%	0-1 @ 10.36% ( 0.1) 1-2 @ 4.95% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 4% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 1.27% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 1.03% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.57% Total : 23.18%