Iran showed their superior quality in last year's meeting with Hong Kong, and with their hosts unable to crack the top two in the final two games and the incentive of extending an unbeaten qualifying record, we back the visitors to pick up another resounding win on Thursday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iran win with a probability of 75.2%. A draw had a probability of 15.1% and a win for Hong Kong had a probability of 9.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Iran win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (9.47%) and 1-2 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.02%), while for a Hong Kong win it was 2-1 (2.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Iran would win this match.

Result
Hong Kong	Draw	Iran
9.7% ( 0.83)	15.1% ( 0.46)	75.2% ( -1.28)

Both teams to score 52.22% (

1.91)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

66.5% (

0.6)

33.5% (

-0.6)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

44.7% (

0.68)

55.3% (

-0.68)

Hong Kong Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

56.45% (

2.14)

43.55% (

-2.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

20.24% (

1.73)

79.75% (

-1.73)

Iran Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

92.52% (

-0.12)

7.48% (

0.13)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

73.13% (

-0.32)

26.86% (

0.32)

Score Analysis

Hong Kong 9.7%

Iran 75.2%

Draw 15.1%

Hong Kong	Draw	Iran
2-1 @ 2.92% ( 0.23) 1-0 @ 2.71% ( 0.08) 2-0 @ 1.13% ( 0.1) 3-2 @ 1.05% ( 0.13) Other @ 1.91% Total : 9.7%	1-1 @ 7.02% ( 0.15) 2-2 @ 3.78% ( 0.27) 0-0 @ 3.26% ( -0.1) 3-3 @ 0.91% ( 0.11) Other @ 0.13% Total : 15.1%	0-2 @ 10.95% ( -0.49) 0-3 @ 9.47% ( -0.49) 1-2 @ 9.1% ( 0.14) 0-1 @ 8.44% ( -0.32) 1-3 @ 7.87% ( 0.07) 0-4 @ 6.14% ( -0.36) 1-4 @ 5.1% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 3.27% ( 0.22) 0-5 @ 3.18% ( -0.21) 1-5 @ 2.65% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 2.12% ( 0.13) 0-6 @ 1.38% ( -0.1) 1-6 @ 1.14% ( -0.01) 2-5 @ 1.1% ( 0.06) Other @ 3.29% Total : 75.2%