World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - Africa | Group Stage

Jun 6, 2024 at 8pm UK

Stade 26 Mars

Mali
1 - 2
Ghana

Doumbia (45+1')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Nuamah (58'), Ayew (90+4')
Owusu (86')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - Africa clash between Mali and Ghana, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mali

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Mali 2-0 Nigeria
Tuesday, March 26 at 9pm in International Friendlies

Current Group E Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Mali	3	2	5
2	South Africa	3	2	4
3	Namibia	3	-3	4
4	Tunisia	3	-1	2

Ghana

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Uganda 2-2 Ghana
Tuesday, March 26 at 4pm in International Friendlies

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Cape Verde	3	4	7
2	Egypt	3	0	3
3	Ghana	3	-1	2
4	Mozambique	3	-3	2

Mali have made major strides forward in recent years and are now up to 44th in the world, according to FIFA Rankings, which is higher than the likes of Norway and Greece, and just one behind African powerhouse Algeria. There is genuine belief among Eagles' fans that this tournament will lead them to their first-ever World Cup appearance, and we feel they will continue their upward trajectory with a victory against the Black Stars on Thursday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 54.91%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Ghana had a probability of 20.63%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.54%) and 2-1 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.58%), while for a Ghana win it was 0-1 (7.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.

Result
Mali	Draw	Ghana
54.91% ( 1.22)	24.45% ( -0.36)	20.63% ( -0.86)

Both teams to score 48.28% (

-0.12)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.21% (

0.45)

52.78% (

-0.45)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.58% (

0.38)

74.41% (

-0.39)

Mali Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.86% (

0.65)

19.13% (

-0.65)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.22% (

1.07)

50.78% (

-1.07)

Ghana Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.7% (

-0.64)

40.29% (

0.63)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.08% (

-0.58)

76.92% (

0.58)

Score Analysis

Mali 54.91%

Ghana 20.63%

Draw 24.44%

Mali	Draw	Ghana
1-0 @ 12.75% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 10.54% ( 0.24) 2-1 @ 9.58% ( 0.06) 3-0 @ 5.81% ( 0.25) 3-1 @ 5.28% ( 0.14) 4-0 @ 2.4% ( 0.15) 3-2 @ 2.4% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 2.18% ( 0.1) 4-2 @ 0.99% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.97% Total : 54.91%	1-1 @ 11.58% ( -0.17) 0-0 @ 7.71% ( -0.14) 2-2 @ 4.36% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.8% Total : 24.44%	0-1 @ 7.01% ( -0.25) 1-2 @ 5.27% ( -0.17) 0-2 @ 3.19% ( -0.17) 1-3 @ 1.6% ( -0.08) 2-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 0.97% ( -0.07) Other @ 1.29% Total : 20.63%