CONCACAF Nations League | Semi-Finals
Mar 22, 2024 at 2.15am UK
AT&T Stadium
We said: Panama 1-1 Mexico (Panama advances on penalties)
Just like in the 2023 final, we expect this to be a close game between two sides with plenty of experience in these sorts of games.
Although it has been a while since Los Canaleros have got the better of El Tri, Panama have been a lot more consistent than their Thursday opponents, and it seems like they have learned a lot from that Gold Cup loss, which should serve them well in this contest.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Panama win with a probability of 38.58%. A win for Mexico had a probability of 34.12% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Panama win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.22%) and 2-0 (6.98%). The likeliest Mexico win was 0-1 (10.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.
| Result |
| Panama | Draw | Mexico |
38.58% ( 0.76) | 27.29% ( 0.13) | 34.12% ( -0.89) |
| Both teams to score 49.8% ( -0.51) |
| 44.31% ( -0.59) | 55.69% ( 0.6) |
| 23.16% ( -0.49) | 76.84% ( 0.49) |
| 71.95% ( 0.16) | 28.05% ( -0.15) |
