Considering Estudiantes Merida have already been eliminated from the competition, they may not be as motivated as their opponents, who still have a chance of qualifying for the next round. As such, we expect San Lorenzo to eke out a victory, but given their recent struggles in front of goal, it is unlikely to be a high-scoring game. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Lorenzo win with a probability of 72.45%. A draw had a probability of 18.7% and a win for Estudiantes Merida had a probability of 8.84%.

The most likely scoreline for a San Lorenzo win was 2-0 with a probability of 15.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (15.49%) and 3-0 (10.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.44%), while for a Estudiantes Merida win it was 0-1 (4.16%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that San Lorenzo would win this match.

Result
San Lorenzo	Draw	Estudiantes Merida
72.45% ( -0.11)	18.71% ( 0.07)	8.84% ( 0.04)

Both teams to score 36.46% (

-0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.44% (

-0.15)

52.56% (

0.16)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.78% (

-0.13)

74.22% (

0.13)

San Lorenzo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.83% (

-0.08)

13.17% (

0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

60.12% (

-0.16)

39.88% (

0.16)

Estudiantes Merida Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

41.99% (

-0)

58.01% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

10.4% (

89.6% (

Score Analysis

San Lorenzo 72.43%

Estudiantes Merida 8.84%

Draw 18.71%

San Lorenzo	Draw	Estudiantes Merida
2-0 @ 15.69% 1-0 @ 15.49% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 10.6% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 8.55% 3-1 @ 5.78% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 5.38% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 2.93% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 2.18% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.57% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.19% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.09% Total : 72.43%	1-1 @ 8.44% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 7.64% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 2.33% Other @ 0.31% Total : 18.71%	0-1 @ 4.16% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 2.3% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 1.13% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.25% Total : 8.84%