La Liga

La Liga | Gameweek 20

Jan 31, 2024 at 8pm UK

Estadio Civitas Metropolitano

Atletico
2 - 1
Rayo Vallecano

Mandava (35'), Depay (90')
Simeone (90+2')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Garcia (42')
Perez (38'), Isi (60'), Chavarria (90+3')
Francisco (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's La Liga clash between Atletico Madrid and Rayo Vallecano, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Madrid

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Atletico 2-0 Valencia
Sunday, January 28 at 8pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Rayo Vallecano

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Real Sociedad 0-0 Rayo Vallecano
Saturday, January 27 at 1pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Atletico Madrid 2-0 Rayo Vallecano

Rayo may have picked up 16 of their 24 points from away matches, but we think that they will be left empty-handed when they go against an Atletico side that has won 10 of their 11 home games in La Liga this season. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 59.03%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 18.08%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.1%) and 2-1 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.87%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 0-1 (6.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.

Result
Atletico Madrid	Draw	Rayo Vallecano
59.03% ( -0.13)	22.89% ( -0.07)	18.08% ( 0.21)

Both teams to score 48.83% (

0.6)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.08% (

0.6)

49.92% (

-0.6)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.09% (

0.53)

71.91% (

-0.53)

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.42% (

0.17)

16.58% (

-0.16)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.62% (

0.3)

46.38% (

-0.3)

Rayo Vallecano Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.53% (

0.6)

41.46% (

-0.6)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.03% (

0.52)

77.97% (

-0.52)

Score Analysis

Atletico Madrid 59.02%

Rayo Vallecano 18.08%

Draw 22.88%

Atletico Madrid	Draw	Rayo Vallecano
1-0 @ 12.35% ( -0.23) 2-0 @ 11.1% ( -0.14) 2-1 @ 9.77% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 6.65% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 5.85% ( 0.05) 4-0 @ 2.99% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.63% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.58% ( 0.06) 4-2 @ 1.16% ( 0.03) 5-0 @ 1.07% ( 0) 5-1 @ 0.95% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.93% Total : 59.02%	1-1 @ 10.87% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 6.88% ( -0.17) 2-2 @ 4.3% ( 0.08) Other @ 0.84% Total : 22.88%	0-1 @ 6.05% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 4.79% ( 0.07) 0-2 @ 2.66% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 1.41% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 1.26% ( 0.04) Other @ 1.91% Total : 18.08%