Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 33

May 12, 2024 at 8pm UK

Stade Velodrome

Marseille
3 - 1
Lorient

Aubameyang (36', 54' pen.), Gigot (41')
Aubameyang (49'), Gueye (73'), Murillo (90+5')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Mendy (43')
Laporte (17'), Katseris (51'), Bamba (61'), Abergel (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Marseille and Lorient, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Marseille

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Atalanta 3-0 Marseille
Thursday, May 9 at 8pm in Europa League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Lorient

All competitions

Last Game: Lens 2-0 Lorient
Friday, May 3 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

We said: Marseille 3-1 Lorient

Marseille would have been disappointed with Thursday's display in Bergamo, but we think that they will produce a positive response to showcase their attacking talent against a Lorient side that has the worst defensive record in the division. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 67.11%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Lorient had a probability of 14.03%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.84%) and 2-1 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.87%), while for a Lorient win it was 0-1 (4.01%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 3-1 win for Marseille in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Marseille.

Result
Marseille	Draw	Lorient
67.11% ( 0.02)	18.86%	14.03% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 52.89% (

-0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.14% (

-0.03)

39.86% (

0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.78% (

-0.03)

62.22% (

0.03)

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.03% (

-0)

10.97% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

64.79% (

-0.01)

35.21% (

0.01)

Lorient Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.41% (

-0.04)

40.59% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.81% (

-0.03)

77.19% (

0.04)

Score Analysis

Marseille 67.11%

Lorient 14.03%

Draw 18.86%

Marseille	Draw	Lorient
2-0 @ 10.87% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 9.84% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.8% ( -0) 3-0 @ 8.01% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 7.22% ( -0) 4-0 @ 4.43% ( 0) 4-1 @ 3.99% ( -0) 3-2 @ 3.26% ( -0) 5-0 @ 1.96% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.8% ( -0) 5-1 @ 1.76% ( -0) Other @ 4.17% Total : 67.11%	1-1 @ 8.87% ( 0) 0-0 @ 4.45% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.42% ( -0) 3-3 @ 0.98% ( -0) Other @ 0.13% Total : 18.86%	0-1 @ 4.01% ( 0) 1-2 @ 4% ( -0) 0-2 @ 1.81% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.33% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.2% ( -0) Other @ 1.68% Total : 14.03%