Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 73.29%. A draw had a probability of 17% and a win for Nantes had a probability of 9.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.77%) and 3-0 (10.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.1%), while for a Nantes win it was 0-1 (3.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.
Result | ||
Lille | Draw | Nantes |
73.29% ( 1.1) | 17.05% ( -0.55) | 9.66% ( -0.55) |
Both teams to score 44.59% ( -0.23) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.77% ( 0.85) | 43.23% ( -0.86) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.37% ( 0.84) | 65.63% ( -0.84) |
Lille Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
89.69% ( 0.51) | 10.31% ( -0.51) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
66.26% ( 1.15) | 33.73% ( -1.15) |
Nantes Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
49.71% ( -0.55) | 50.28% ( 0.55) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
15.14% ( -0.38) | 84.85% ( 0.38) |
Score Analysis |
Lille | Draw | Nantes |
2-0 @ 13.38% ( 0.08) 1-0 @ 11.77% ( -0.19) 3-0 @ 10.13% ( 0.27) 2-1 @ 9.2% ( -0.09) 3-1 @ 6.97% ( 0.08) 4-0 @ 5.76% ( 0.27) 4-1 @ 3.96% ( 0.13) 5-0 @ 2.62% ( 0.18) 3-2 @ 2.4% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.8% ( 0.1) 4-2 @ 1.36% ( 0.02) 6-0 @ 0.99% ( 0.09) Other @ 2.95% Total : 73.28% | 1-1 @ 8.1% ( -0.26) 0-0 @ 5.18% ( -0.2) 2-2 @ 3.16% ( -0.08) Other @ 0.61% Total : 17.05% | 0-1 @ 3.56% ( -0.19) 1-2 @ 2.78% ( -0.14) 0-2 @ 1.23% ( -0.09) Other @ 2.09% Total : 9.66% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 32 | 20 | 10 | 2 | 77 | 32 | 45 | 70 |
2 | MonacoMonaco | 33 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 64 | 42 | 22 | 64 |
3 | Lille | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 50 | 32 | 18 | 58 |
4 | Brest | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 50 | 34 | 16 | 58 |
5 | Nice | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 37 | 25 | 12 | 54 |
6 | Lens | 33 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 43 | 35 | 8 | 50 |
7 | Lyon | 33 | 15 | 5 | 13 | 47 | 54 | -7 | 50 |
8 | Marseille | 32 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 50 | 39 | 11 | 47 |
9 | Rennes | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 52 | 44 | 8 | 46 |
10 | Toulouse | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 42 | 43 | -1 | 43 |
11 | Reims | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 39 | 46 | -7 | 41 |
12 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 40 |
13 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 37 | 48 | -11 | 39 |
14 | NantesNantes | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 30 | 51 | -21 | 33 |
15 | Le HavreLe Havre | 33 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 33 | 43 | -10 | 32 |
16 | Metz | 33 | 8 | 5 | 20 | 35 | 56 | -21 | 29 |
17 | Lorient | 33 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 38 | 66 | -28 | 26 |
R | Clermont | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 26 | 55 | -29 | 25 |
> Ligue 1 Full Table |