Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Houston Dynamo win with a probability of 54.24%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for San Jose Earthquakes had a probability of 22.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Houston Dynamo win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.82%) and 2-0 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.88%), while for a San Jose Earthquakes win it was 0-1 (6.03%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Houston Dynamo would win this match.
Result | ||
Houston Dynamo | Draw | San Jose Earthquakes |
54.24% ( 0.71) | 23.09% ( -0.26) | 22.67% ( -0.44) |
Both teams to score 55.29% ( 0.3) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.14% ( 0.66) | 44.85% ( -0.66) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
32.79% ( 0.63) | 67.21% ( -0.63) |
Houston Dynamo Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.55% ( 0.49) | 16.45% ( -0.49) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.86% ( 0.88) | 46.14% ( -0.87) |
San Jose Earthquakes Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.18% ( -0.04) | 33.82% ( 0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.51% ( -0.04) | 70.48% ( 0.04) |
Score Analysis |
Houston Dynamo | Draw | San Jose Earthquakes |
1-0 @ 10.04% ( -0.12) 2-1 @ 9.82% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 9.06% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 5.91% ( 0.12) 3-0 @ 5.45% ( 0.11) 3-2 @ 3.2% ( 0.06) 4-1 @ 2.67% ( 0.09) 4-0 @ 2.46% ( 0.09) 4-2 @ 1.45% ( 0.05) 5-1 @ 0.96% ( 0.05) Other @ 3.22% Total : 54.24% | 1-1 @ 10.88% ( -0.14) 0-0 @ 5.56% ( -0.16) 2-2 @ 5.33% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.16% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.15% Total : 23.08% | 0-1 @ 6.03% ( -0.18) 1-2 @ 5.9% ( -0.08) 0-2 @ 3.27% ( -0.1) 1-3 @ 2.13% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 1.92% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.23% Total : 22.67% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 39 | 24 | 15 | 34 |
2 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 16 | 7 | 33 |
3 | New York City FCNY City | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 17 | 7 | 29 |
4 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 28 | 22 | 6 | 26 |
5 | Columbus Crew | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 21 | 13 | 8 | 24 |
6 | Toronto | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 23 |
7 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 22 |
8 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 19 |
9 | Nashville SCNashville | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 19 |
10 | DC United | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 18 |
11 | Orlando City | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 17 |
12 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 16 |
13 | CF MontrealMontreal | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 16 |
14 | Chicago Fire | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 28 | -13 | 12 |
15 | New England RevolutionNew England | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 7 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 31 | 18 | 13 | 30 |
2 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 30 | 23 | 7 | 28 |
3 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
4 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 24 | 19 | 5 | 25 |
5 | Austin FCAustin | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 23 |
6 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 22 |
7 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 22 |
8 | Houston DynamoHouston | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 21 |
9 | Portland TimbersPortland | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 30 | 30 | 0 | 19 |
10 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 18 |
11 | St Louis City | 14 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 20 | 22 | -2 | 16 |
12 | Dallas | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 13 |
13 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 11 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 24 | 39 | -15 | 11 |