Major League Soccer

Sep 19, 2022 at 3.30am UK

Banc of California Stadium

Los Angeles
3 - 1
Houston

Vela (8' pen., 45+4' pen.), Hollingshead (52')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Baird (24')
Dorsey (7')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Major League Soccer clash between Los Angeles FC and Houston Dynamo, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: Los Angeles FC 2-0 Houston Dynamo

LA have more wins at home than any side in MLS this season, while Orange Crush have the third-fewest road victories in the Western Conference. Besides that, Houston do not have the individual quality to handle LAFC over 90 minutes, so expect them to hang back and try to make the score respectable, while we anticipate the Black and Gold will find a breakthrough eventually. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Los Angeles FC win with a probability of 73.52%. A draw had a probability of 15.8% and a win for Houston Dynamo had a probability of 10.71%.

The most likely scoreline for a Los Angeles FC win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.27%) and 3-0 (8.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.28%), while for a Houston Dynamo win it was 1-2 (3.18%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Los Angeles FC would win this match.

Result
Los Angeles FC	Draw	Houston Dynamo
73.52% ( 0.46)	15.76% ( -0.29)	10.71% ( -0.18)

Both teams to score 53.72% (

0.46)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

66.41% (

0.9)

33.58% (

-0.9)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

44.6% (

1.02)

55.39% (

-1.02)

Los Angeles FC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

92.15% (

0.31)

7.84% (

-0.31)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

72.19% (

0.79)

27.8% (

-0.79)

Houston Dynamo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.29% (

0.31)

41.7% (

-0.31)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.82% (

0.27)

78.18% (

-0.27)

Score Analysis

Los Angeles FC 73.52%

Houston Dynamo 10.71%

Draw 15.76%

Los Angeles FC	Draw	Houston Dynamo
2-0 @ 10.59% ( -0.17) 2-1 @ 9.27% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 8.99% ( 0) 1-0 @ 8.33% ( -0.26) 3-1 @ 7.86% ( 0.07) 4-0 @ 5.72% ( 0.09) 4-1 @ 5.01% ( 0.12) 3-2 @ 3.44% ( 0.06) 5-0 @ 2.91% ( 0.09) 5-1 @ 2.55% ( 0.1) 4-2 @ 2.19% ( 0.07) 6-0 @ 1.24% ( 0.06) 5-2 @ 1.11% ( 0.05) 6-1 @ 1.08% ( 0.06) Other @ 3.23% Total : 73.52%	1-1 @ 7.28% ( -0.17) 2-2 @ 4.05% ( 0) 0-0 @ 3.27% ( -0.16) 3-3 @ 1% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.15% Total : 15.76%	1-2 @ 3.18% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 2.86% ( -0.11) 0-2 @ 1.25% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 1.18% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.31% Total : 10.71%