Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 51.61%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Chaves had a probability of 24.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.65%) and 2-0 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.52%), while for a Chaves win it was 0-1 (6.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Moreirense in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Moreirense.
Result | ||
Moreirense | Draw | Chaves |
51.61% ( -0.17) | 24.26% ( 0.08) | 24.13% ( 0.09) |
Both teams to score 53.24% ( -0.14) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.58% ( -0.23) | 48.42% ( 0.23) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.45% ( -0.22) | 70.55% ( 0.22) |
Moreirense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.25% ( -0.15) | 18.75% ( 0.16) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.86% ( -0.26) | 50.14% ( 0.26) |
Chaves Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.52% ( -0.05) | 34.48% ( 0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.81% ( -0.05) | 71.19% ( 0.05) |
Score Analysis |
Moreirense | Draw | Chaves |
1-0 @ 10.82% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 9.65% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 9.06% ( -0) 3-1 @ 5.38% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 5.05% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 2.87% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 2.25% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 2.12% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.2% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.22% Total : 51.61% | 1-1 @ 11.52% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 6.47% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 5.14% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.02% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.12% Total : 24.26% | 0-1 @ 6.88% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 6.14% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 3.67% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 2.18% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.82% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.3% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.14% Total : 24.13% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
2 | Benfica | 33 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 76 | 27 | 49 | 79 |
3 | Porto | 33 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 62 | 27 | 35 | 69 |
4 | Braga | 33 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 71 | 49 | 22 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 52 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 53 | 47 | 6 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
9 | SC FarenseFarense | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 37 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 36 |
12 | Casa Pia | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 35 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 60 | -23 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
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