Torino square off against already-relegated SPAL on Sunday evening knowing that victory will be enough to mathematically secure their Serie A status for another 12 months.

As for the home side, they head into the game at Stadio Paolo Mazza looking to regain some pride ahead of their return to the second tier.

Match preview

Torino manager Moreno Longo pictured in June 2020 © Reuters

Although Torino remain far below the position in the table which was expected of them at the start of the season, Moreno Longo will be relieved that his side's form has improved in recent games.

Seven points have been recorded from their last five outings, a run which includes crucial victories over the likes of Brescia and Genoa.

The defeats during that period have come at Inter Milan and Fiorentina respectively, results which have extended Torino's recent away record to nine successive setbacks in all competitions.

However, at a time when Andrea Belotti will want to end a two-match streak without a goal, Longo will feel that IL Toro have to capitalise on a trip to opponents who have long been destined to be relegated.

With three matches remaining, SPAL sit 17 points adrift of safety, a far cry from the 13th position which was achieved from the last campaign.

While it remains to be seen whether Luigi Di Biagio will remain at the helm, the former Italy Under-21s boss will at least want to end a winless run which stretches back to March 8.

I Biancazzurri have never recovered from conceding two late goals to draw with AC Milan on July 1, a setback which has acted as the catalyst for six defeats in a row.

Twenty goals have been shipped during that stretch of games, and the club's 6-1 defeat against Roma suggests that they face an uphill task to gain anything this weekend.

SPAL Serie A form: LLLLLL

Torino Serie A form: LWLWLD

Team News

Chelsea loanee Ola Aina playing for Torino in January 2019 © Reuters

Ola Aina is expected to come into the Torino starting lineup after Lorenzo De Silvestri's early withdrawal on Wednesday night.

Given the four-day rest period, Longo may be prepared to stick with the remainder of the starting lineup.

SPAL will be without Kevin Bonifazi, who was handed a red card while still as an unused substitute against Roma.

Arkadiusz Reca is expected to be introduced as a replacement for Jacopo Sala at left-back after the latter's early withdrawal on Wednesday evening.

Andrea Petagna could also be brought back into the team should Di Biagio opt to switch to a two-man attack.

SPAL possible starting lineup:
Letica; Tomovic, Vicari, Felipe, Reca; D'Alessandro, Valdifiori, Murgia, Strefezza; Cerri, Petagna

Torino possible starting lineup:
Sirigu; Lyanco, Nkoulou, Bremer; Aina, Meite, Rincon, Ansaldi; Verdi; Zaza, Belotti

We say: SPAL 0-2 Torino

With SPAL seemingly shipping goals for fun, we have to back Belotti and co to take advantage. While it may be nervy for a time, it would come as a surprise if the visitors to not run out relatively comfortable winners.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Torino win with a probability of 47.07%. A win for SPAL had a probability of 28.89% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Torino win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.89%) and 0-2 (7.44%). The likeliest SPAL win was 2-1 (7.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.21%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.