Australian A-League | 1st Leg

May 13, 2023 at 10.45am UK

Hindmarsh Stadium, Adelaide

Adelaide United
1 - 2
Central Coast

(Central Coast Mariners win 4-1 on aggregate)

Goodwin (4' pen.)
Sanchez (65'), Kitto (79'), Irankunda (82')

FT(HT: 1-2)

McGarry (15'), Cummings (37')
Triantis (53'), Farrell (62'), Theoharous (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Australian A-League clash between Adelaide United and Central Coast Mariners, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Adelaide United

All competitions

Last Game: Adelaide United 2-0 Wellington
Friday, May 5 at 10.45am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Central Coast Mariners

All competitions

Last Game: Adelaide United 1-4 Central Coast
Friday, April 28 at 10.45am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Adelaide United 1-1 Central Coast Mariners

With this being the first leg of the semi-final, it is likely to be quite a nervous and cautious encounter with neither team wanting to give too much away heading into the second game. Considering that, it would not be a surprise to see the two teams play out a draw in this match, leaving it all to play for in the reverse fixture. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 40.67%. A win for Central Coast Mariners had a probability of 36.88% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.

The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.63%) and 2-0 (4.98%). The likeliest Central Coast Mariners win was 1-2 (7.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.

Result
Adelaide United	Draw	Central Coast Mariners
40.67% ( -0.37)	22.44% ( 0.01)	36.88% ( 0.35)

Both teams to score 67.47% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

66.94% (

-0)

33.06% (

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

45.21% (

-0.01)

54.79% (

Adelaide United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.96% (

-0.15)

17.04% (

0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.81% (

-0.27)

47.19% (

0.26)

Central Coast Mariners Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.33% (

0.16)

18.67% (

-0.16)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.99% (

0.27)

50.01% (

-0.27)

Score Analysis

Adelaide United 40.67%

Central Coast Mariners 36.88%

Draw 22.44%

Adelaide United	Draw	Central Coast Mariners
2-1 @ 8.36% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 5.63% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 4.98% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 4.93% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 4.14% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 2.94% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 2.18% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 1.83% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.3% ( -0.03) 4-3 @ 1.02% ( -0) Other @ 3.35% Total : 40.67%	1-1 @ 9.45% ( 0) 2-2 @ 7.02% ( 0) 0-0 @ 3.18% ( 0) 3-3 @ 2.32% ( 0) Other @ 0.49% Total : 22.44%	1-2 @ 7.93% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 5.34% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 4.48% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 4.43% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 3.92% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 2.51% ( 0.04) 1-4 @ 1.86% ( 0.03) 2-4 @ 1.65% ( 0.02) 0-4 @ 1.05% ( 0.02) 3-4 @ 0.97% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.75% Total : 36.88%