Australian A-League | Gameweek 17

Feb 18, 2023 at 8.45am UK

AAMI Park

Victory
3 - 2
Melbourne City

Da Silva (7'), Fornaroli (46'), Brillante (77')
Chapman (37'), Miranda (68')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Leckie (24', 80')
Tilio (58'), Glover (78'), Leckie (90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Australian A-League clash between Melbourne Victory and Melbourne City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Melbourne Victory

All competitions

Last Game: Newcastle Jets 2-1 Victory
Sunday, February 12 at 4am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Melbourne City

All competitions

Last Game: Perth Glory 2-4 Melbourne City
Saturday, February 11 at 11.30am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

We said: Melbourne Victory 0-3 Melbourne City

Melbourne Victory are going through a tough season at the moment, and coming up against the current league leaders could see that continue. While it is a derby fixture, therefore the hosts will provide a stern test, this is one that Melbourne City should win comfortably. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 54.5%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 22.24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.82%) and 0-2 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.01%), while for a Melbourne Victory win it was 1-0 (6.17%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.

Result
Melbourne Victory	Draw	Melbourne City
22.24% ( 0.25)	23.26% ( 0.18)	54.5% ( -0.43)

Both teams to score 54.17% (

-0.25)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.93% (

-0.49)

46.08% (

0.5)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.63% (

-0.47)

68.38% (

0.47)

Melbourne Victory Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.11% (

-0.04)

34.89% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.37% (

-0.04)

71.63% (

0.05)

Melbourne City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.2% (

-0.33)

16.8% (

0.33)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.24% (

-0.59)

46.77% (

0.59)

Score Analysis

Melbourne Victory 22.24%

Melbourne City 54.49%

Draw 23.26%

Melbourne Victory	Draw	Melbourne City
1-0 @ 6.17% ( 0.12) 2-1 @ 5.8% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 3.25% ( 0.06) 3-1 @ 2.03% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.81% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 1.14% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.04% Total : 22.24%	1-1 @ 11.01% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 5.86% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 5.17% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.08% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.14% Total : 23.26%	0-1 @ 10.45% ( 0.1) 1-2 @ 9.82% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 9.33% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 5.84% ( -0.08) 0-3 @ 5.55% ( -0.07) 2-3 @ 3.07% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 2.6% ( -0.06) 0-4 @ 2.47% ( -0.06) 2-4 @ 1.37% ( -0.03) 1-5 @ 0.93% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.06% Total : 54.49%