Australian A-League | Gameweek 15

Feb 3, 2023 at 8.45am UK

AAMI Park

Victory
3 - 1
Wellington

Fornaroli (32'), Brimmer (54'), Juric (90+1')
Fornaroli (70')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Zawada (13')
Elliot (25'), Surman (52')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Australian A-League clash between Melbourne Victory and Wellington Phoenix, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Melbourne Victory

All competitions

Last Game: Victory 1-2 Sydney FC
Thursday, January 26 at 7.45am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Wellington Phoenix

All competitions

Last Game: Wellington 2-2 Perth Glory
Saturday, January 28 at 2am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

We said: Melbourne Victory 0-2 Wellington Phoenix

Melbourne Victory are struggling massively right now, and while playing at home would normally provide a benefit to a team, that is not the case for them right now. The hosts have won just a single match in their own stadium this season, and because of that Wellington Phoenix should be able to claim all three points in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 46.6%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 28.71% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.34%) and 2-0 (7.75%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 0-1 (7.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne Victory would win this match.

Result
Melbourne Victory	Draw	Wellington Phoenix
46.6% ( 0.01)	24.68% ( -0.11)	28.71% ( 0.11)

Both teams to score 55.92% (

0.45)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.23% (

0.55)

46.77% (

-0.55)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.97% (

0.52)

69.03% (

-0.52)

Melbourne Victory Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.86% (

0.23)

20.14% (

-0.23)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.58% (

0.36)

52.42% (

-0.36)

Wellington Phoenix Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.03% (

0.36)

29.97% (

-0.36)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.92% (

0.43)

66.08% (

-0.43)

Score Analysis

Melbourne Victory 46.6%

Wellington Phoenix 28.71%

Draw 24.68%

Melbourne Victory	Draw	Wellington Phoenix
1-0 @ 9.67% ( -0.16) 2-1 @ 9.34% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 7.75% ( -0.07) 3-1 @ 4.99% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 4.14% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 3.01% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 2% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 1.66% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.2% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.85% Total : 46.6%	1-1 @ 11.65% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 6.04% ( -0.14) 2-2 @ 5.63% ( 0.06) 3-3 @ 1.21% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.68%	0-1 @ 7.27% ( -0.1) 1-2 @ 7.02% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 4.38% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.82% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 2.26% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 1.76% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.2% Total : 28.71%