Champions League

Champions League | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg

Apr 11, 2023 at 8pm UK

Etihad Stadium

Man City
3 - 0
Bayern

(Manchester City win 4-1 on aggregate)

Rodri (27'), Silva (70'), Braut Haaland (76')
Silva (48')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Davies (49'), Pavard (88')

Sadio Mane 'punched Bayern Munich teammate Leroy Sane after Manchester City loss'

Sadio Mane punched Bayern Munich teammate Leroy Sane in the face after the German club's Champions League loss to Manchester City, according to a report.

Apr 12, 18:10

Manchester City's Kevin De Bruyne after sustaining an injury on April 11, 2023

Pep Guardiola plays down Kevin De Bruyne injury fears after Bayern Munich win

Pep Guardiola plays down injury concerns surrounding Kevin De Bruyne following Manchester City's 3-0 Champions League win over Bayern Munich on Tuesday.

Apr 12, 00:35

Manchester City's Erling Braut Haaland celebrates scoring their third goal on April 11, 2023

Erling Braut Haaland breaks fresh goalscoring record in win over Bayern Munich

Erling Braut Haaland breaks a fresh goalscoring record after finding the net in Manchester City's 3-0 victory over Bayern Munich in the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final on Tuesday.

Apr 11, 22:34

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Manchester City

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Southampton 1-4 Man City
Saturday, April 8 at 5.30pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Bayern Munich

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Freiburg 0-1 Bayern
Saturday, April 8 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 42.13%. A win for Bayern Munich had a probability of 36.25% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.2%) and 1-0 (4.82%). The likeliest Bayern Munich win was 1-2 (7.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.52%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.

Result
Manchester City	Draw	Bayern Munich
42.13% ( -0.02)	21.61% ( -0)	36.25% ( 0.03)

Both teams to score 70.69% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

71.14% (

0.02)

28.86% (

-0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

50.19% (

0.03)

49.8% (

-0.02)

Manchester City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.25% (

14.75% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.02% (

42.97% (

0.01)

Bayern Munich Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.92% (

0.02)

17.08% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.74% (

0.04)

47.26% (

-0.03)

Score Analysis

Manchester City 42.13%

Bayern Munich 36.25%

Draw 21.61%

Manchester City	Draw	Bayern Munich
2-1 @ 8.15% ( -0) 3-1 @ 5.2% ( -0) 1-0 @ 4.82% ( -0) 2-0 @ 4.61% ( -0) 3-2 @ 4.6% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.94% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.49% ( -0) 4-2 @ 2.2% 4-0 @ 1.41% ( -0) 4-3 @ 1.3% ( 0) 5-1 @ 0.95% ( -0) Other @ 3.45% Total : 42.13%	1-1 @ 8.52% ( -0) 2-2 @ 7.21% ( 0) 3-3 @ 2.71% ( 0) 0-0 @ 2.52% ( -0) Other @ 0.66% Total : 21.61%	1-2 @ 7.53% ( 0) 0-1 @ 4.45% ( -0) 1-3 @ 4.44% ( 0) 2-3 @ 4.25% ( 0) 0-2 @ 3.93% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.32% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.96% ( 0) 2-4 @ 1.88% ( 0) 3-4 @ 1.2% ( 0) 0-4 @ 1.02% ( 0) Other @ 3.29% Total : 36.25%