Champions League

Champions League | First Qualifying Round | 1st Leg

Jul 11, 2023 at 7pm UK

Stadion Stozice

Ljubljana
2 - 1
Valmiera

(NK Olimpija Ljubljana win 4-2 on aggregate)

Nukic (42'), Pedro (74')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Diop (87')
Ribeiro Rodrigues (35')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between NK Olimpija Ljubljana and Valmiera, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

NK Olimpija Ljubljana

Last Game: Ljubljana 2-0 Sepsi (2-3 pen.)
Thursday, July 28 at 6pm in Europa Conference League

Valmiera

Last Game: Shkendija 3-1 Valmiera
Thursday, July 28 at 7pm in Europa Conference League

We said: NK Olimpija Ljubljana 2-0 Valmiera

NK Olimpija Ljubljana have much more experience in the Champions League, while they also come into the game fresh off the back of a fantastic title-winning season and some solid performances in friendly matches. As such, we expect the Slovenian side to record a comfortable victory against a Valmiera side who are currently struggling in their domestic league. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NK Olimpija Ljubljana win with a probability of 46.14%. A win for Valmiera had a probability of 29.39% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a NK Olimpija Ljubljana win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.23%) and 2-0 (7.48%). The likeliest Valmiera win was 1-2 (7.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.49%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for NK Olimpija Ljubljana in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for NK Olimpija Ljubljana.

Result
NK Olimpija Ljubljana	Draw	Valmiera
46.14% ( 0.79)	24.47% ( -0.16)	29.39% ( -0.63)

Both teams to score 57.11% (

0.18)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.58% (

0.4)

45.42% (

-0.41)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.25% (

0.38)

67.75% (

-0.39)

NK Olimpija Ljubljana Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.21% (

0.5)

19.79% (

-0.5)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.15% (

0.81)

51.85% (

-0.81)

Valmiera Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.2% (

-0.23)

28.8% (

0.22)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.35% (

-0.28)

64.65% (

0.28)

Score Analysis

NK Olimpija Ljubljana 46.14%

Valmiera 29.39%

Draw 24.46%

NK Olimpija Ljubljana	Draw	Valmiera
2-1 @ 9.31% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 9.23% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 7.48% ( 0.1) 3-1 @ 5.03% ( 0.12) 3-0 @ 4.04% ( 0.12) 3-2 @ 3.13% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 2.04% ( 0.08) 4-0 @ 1.64% ( 0.07) 4-2 @ 1.27% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.99% Total : 46.14%	1-1 @ 11.49% ( -0.09) 2-2 @ 5.79% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.7% ( -0.1) 3-3 @ 1.3% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.46%	1-2 @ 7.15% ( -0.1) 0-1 @ 7.1% ( -0.17) 0-2 @ 4.42% ( -0.13) 1-3 @ 2.97% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 2.4% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.83% ( -0.07) 1-4 @ 0.92% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.6% Total : 29.39%