Champions League

Champions League | First Qualifying Round | 2nd Leg

Jul 19, 2023 at 4pm UK

Vidzemes Olimpiskais centrs

Valmiera
1 - 2
Ljubljana

(NK Olimpija Ljubljana win 4-2 on aggregate)

Mena (82')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Pedro (33'), Muhamedbegovic (64')
Doffo (29')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between Valmiera and NK Olimpija Ljubljana, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Valmiera

Last Game: Ljubljana 2-1 Valmiera
Tuesday, July 11 at 7pm in Champions League

NK Olimpija Ljubljana

Last Game: Ljubljana 2-1 Valmiera
Tuesday, July 11 at 7pm in Champions League

We said: Valmiera 1-1 NK Olimpija Ljubljana (NK Olimpija Ljubljana to win 3-2 on aggregate)

Valmiera have plenty of competitive matches under their belt this year and their recent home record bodes well in their quest to turn the first-round tie around. However, a fresh and fired-up Olimpija outfit, who boast more experience at this stage of Champions League qualifying, should do enough to record at least a draw in the second leg to send them through on aggregate to the next round. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Valmiera win with a probability of 50.41%. A win for NK Olimpija Ljubljana had a probability of 25.52% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Valmiera win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.62%) and 2-0 (8.49%). The likeliest NK Olimpija Ljubljana win was 0-1 (6.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.

Result
Valmiera	Draw	NK Olimpija Ljubljana
50.41% ( 0.05)	24.07% ( 0)	25.52% ( -0.05)

Both teams to score 55.3% (

-0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.63% (

-0.04)

46.37% (

0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.34% (

-0.04)

68.65% (

0.04)

Valmiera Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.57% (

18.43% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.4% (

49.6% (

-0)

NK Olimpija Ljubljana Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.79% (

-0.06)

32.2% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.3% (

-0.07)

68.69% (

0.07)

Score Analysis

Valmiera 50.4%

NK Olimpija Ljubljana 25.52%

Draw 24.07%

Valmiera	Draw	NK Olimpija Ljubljana
1-0 @ 10.03% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.62% ( 0) 2-0 @ 8.49% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 5.42% ( 0) 3-0 @ 4.78% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.07% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.29% ( 0) 4-0 @ 2.02% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.3% ( -0) Other @ 3.38% Total : 50.4%	1-1 @ 11.37% 0-0 @ 5.94% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.45% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.16% ( -0) Other @ 0.15% Total : 24.07%	0-1 @ 6.73% ( 0) 1-2 @ 6.44% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 3.81% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.43% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.06% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.44% ( -0) Other @ 2.61% Total : 25.52%