Even with a noticeably thin squad and a couple of defensive absentees, a PSV side on cloud nine from their Super Cup triumph should still make light work of Sturm Graz on their own turf, as was the case in the Europa League two seasons ago. It remains to be seen how the Simons-less Lightbulbs will fare under Bosz in the long run, and they will not score for fun on Tuesday, but the visitors' youthful crop surely lack the necessary continental experience to trouble the hosts' backline. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 54.74%. A win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 25.16% and a draw had a probability of 20.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.72%) and 2-0 (6%). The likeliest Sturm Graz win was 1-2 (5.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.96%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.

Result
PSV Eindhoven	Draw	Sturm Graz
54.74% ( -0.06)	20.1% ( 0.01)	25.16% ( 0.06)

Both teams to score 69.32% (

0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

72.14% (

0.03)

27.85% (

-0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

51.44% (

0.03)

48.56% (

-0.03)

PSV Eindhoven Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.45% (

-0.01)

10.54% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

65.73% (

-0.02)

34.26% (

0.01)

Sturm Graz Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.49% (

0.05)

22.5% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.93% (

0.08)

56.06% (

-0.08)

Score Analysis

PSV Eindhoven 54.74%

Sturm Graz 25.16%

Draw 20.1%

PSV Eindhoven	Draw	Sturm Graz
2-1 @ 8.96% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 6.72% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 6% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 5.34% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 5.01% ( 0) 3-0 @ 4.5% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 3.78% ( -0) 4-2 @ 2.82% ( 0) 4-0 @ 2.53% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.7% ( -0) 4-3 @ 1.4% ( 0) 5-2 @ 1.27% 5-0 @ 1.14% ( -0) Other @ 3.59% Total : 54.74%	1-1 @ 7.96% ( -0) 2-2 @ 6.68% ( 0) 3-3 @ 2.49% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 2.37% ( -0) Other @ 0.6% Total : 20.1%	1-2 @ 5.94% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 3.54% ( -0) 2-3 @ 3.32% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.95% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 2.64% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.31% ( 0) 2-4 @ 1.24% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.1% ( 0) 3-4 @ 0.93% ( 0) Other @ 2.19% Total : 25.16%