In an identical scenario to the 2021-22 Europa League group stage, PSV could very well follow up a 4-1 thrashing of Sturm Graz with a more lowkey two-goal success to ensure a straightforward route into the playoff round. Bosz may be tempted to tinker with his lineup, potentially giving the hosts a glimmer of hope, but the Dutch Super Cup winners should have an array of talent in reserve waiting to make an impact should things go pear-shaped. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 41.21%. A win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 34.65% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.74%) and 0-2 (6.13%). The likeliest Sturm Graz win was 2-1 (7.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.

Result
Sturm Graz	Draw	PSV Eindhoven
34.65% ( -0.16)	24.14% ( 0.01)	41.21% ( 0.15)

Both teams to score 60.57% (

-0.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.12% (

-0.06)

41.88% (

0.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.72% (

-0.06)

64.28% (

0.06)

Sturm Graz Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.19% (

-0.11)

23.81% (

0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.02% (

-0.16)

57.98% (

0.16)

PSV Eindhoven Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.5% (

0.04)

20.5% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.01% (

0.07)

52.99% (

-0.07)

Score Analysis

Sturm Graz 34.65%

PSV Eindhoven 41.21%

Draw 24.14%

Sturm Graz	Draw	PSV Eindhoven
2-1 @ 7.97% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 7% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 5.03% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 3.81% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 3.02% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 2.4% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 1.37% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.08% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.97% Total : 34.65%	1-1 @ 11.1% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.31% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 4.88% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.6% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.25% Total : 24.14%	1-2 @ 8.8% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 7.74% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 6.13% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 4.65% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 3.33% 0-3 @ 3.24% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 1.84% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 1.32% ( 0) 0-4 @ 1.28% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.89% Total : 41.21%