Champions League

Champions League | Second Qualifying Round | 1st Leg

Jul 26, 2023 at 7.15pm UK

Stadion Rakow

Rakow
3 - 2
Qarabag

(Rakow Czestochowa win 4-3 on aggregate)

Cafarquliyev (55' og.), Piasecki (71'), Kittel (90+1')
Cebula (11')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Xhixha (73', 75')
Benzia (35'), Xhixha (78'), Richard (90+8')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between Rakow Czestochowa and Qarabag FK, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Rakow Czestochowa

Last Game: Flora 0-3 Rakow
Tuesday, July 18 at 6pm in Champions League

Qarabag FK

Last Game: Qarabag 4-0 Lincoln
Wednesday, July 19 at 5pm in Champions League

We said: Rakow Czestochowa 1-1 Qarabag FK

Both these sides come into this match carrying solid domestic league form and managed fairly convincing wins in their first-round matches. We expect this to be a close-run encounter between two well-matched sides and fancy that they will cancel each other out and head into the second leg level. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rakow Czestochowa win with a probability of 47.44%. A win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 27.6% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Rakow Czestochowa win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.37%) and 2-0 (8.18%). The likeliest Qarabag FK win was 0-1 (7.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.84%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rakow Czestochowa would win this match.

Result
Rakow Czestochowa	Draw	Qarabag FK
47.44% ( 0.05)	24.96% ( 0.02)	27.6% ( -0.07)

Both teams to score 54.19% (

-0.12)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.33% (

-0.14)

48.67% (

0.14)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.21% (

-0.13)

70.78% (

0.13)

Rakow Czestochowa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.44% (

-0.04)

20.55% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.92% (

-0.06)

53.07% (

0.06)

Qarabag FK Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.21% (

-0.12)

31.78% (

0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.78% (

-0.14)

68.21% (

0.14)

Score Analysis

Rakow Czestochowa 47.43%

Qarabag FK 27.6%

Draw 24.96%

Rakow Czestochowa	Draw	Qarabag FK
1-0 @ 10.33% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 9.37% ( 0) 2-0 @ 8.18% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 4.94% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 4.31% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.83% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.96% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.71% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.12% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.69% Total : 47.43%	1-1 @ 11.84% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.53% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 5.37% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.08% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.96%	0-1 @ 7.49% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 6.79% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 4.29% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.59% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.05% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.64% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.74% Total : 27.6%