The Chicago Fire will try to earn their first victory of the new Major League Soccer season on Saturday when they take on Inter Miami at Soldier Field.
After drawing their opening game with the New England Revolution, the Fire have lost their last four matches, while the Herons were able to snap a three-match winless run on Sunday by defeating FC Cincinnati 3-2.
Match preview
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It may be a new season, but so far in 2021, the Chicago Fire still look like the team that ended last season by going winless in their final six regular-season games and failing to qualify for the post-season.
Manager Raphael Wicky felt his side deserved a better outcome than the 1-0 loss they suffered last Thursday at the hands of DC United, a third consecutive defeat and a third straight match without a goal.
As they begin a two-game homestand, the Fire may already be in desperation mode, having gone winless in their last 11 regular season outings dating back to 2020.
They are currently in 13th place in the Eastern Conference table, and there are talks of significant changes to the team if things do not turn around in a hurry for the lowest-scoring team in the league, with just three goals.
They played well last week, but their range was just not where it needed to be, as they fired 15 shots but only forced DC keeper Jon Kempin to make three saves.
Chicago will be desperate to end their goal drought this weekend and avoid a fourth successive match without scoring, something they have not done in the regular season since 2010.
Inter Miami got their season back on track last Sunday, defeating FC Cincinnati 3-2 and putting an end to their three-game winless run.
The big players for South Beach came to play in their last match, with striker Gonzalo Higuain scoring twice and being named the MLS Player of the Week.
Manager Phil Neville has talked about building a culture, a spirit and togetherness, and he saw a lot more of that on display last weekend in their second victory of the season.
Another thing we saw from Miami on Sunday was resiliency and determination, scoring the winning goal just three minutes after Cincinnati had erased a two-goal deficit.
Before that result, they had failed to win a game when opening the scoring, squandering the lead twice in their first match of the season, which ended in a 3-2 defeat to the LA Galaxy.
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Team News
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Chicago winger Ignacio Aliseda, along with centre-back Carlos Teran, are nursing hamstring injuries.
Stanislav Ivanov is still a long way from being fit after knee surgery over the summer.
Robert Beric, their leading goalscorer from 2020, is without a goal in his last four games, firing 15 shots but only hitting the target four times.
For Miami, centre-back Nicolas Figal and striker Robbie Robinson could miss out with unknown injuries, while centre-back Ian Fray will be out of the lineup a bit longer, with a cruciate ligament injury.
Striker Gonzalo Higuain has scored half of the goals for Miami so far this season, while Lewis Morgan, who led the team in goals and assists in 2020, helped set up the winning goal for his first assist of the new campaign.
Chicago Fire possible starting lineup:
Shuttleworth; Navarro, Calvo, Omsberg, Sekulic; Pineda, Gimenez; Medran, Stojanovic, Herbers; Beric
Inter Miami possible starting lineup:
McCarthy; Guediri, Gonzalez, Shawcross, Ulloa; Matuidi, da Silva; Shea, Pizarro, Morgan; G. Higuain
We say: Chicago Fire 2-2 Inter Miami
These teams have never faced each other before in MLS, but there are many similarities between them, including the fact that they both rely almost exclusively on one player for offence, Beric for Chicago and Gonzalo Higuain for Miami.
Sunday could be a busy day for the goalkeepers as Miami have only kept four clean sheets in their MLS history, while the Fire have conceded a goal in each of their last 14 regular season matches.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chicago Fire win with a probability of 45.96%. A win for Inter Miami had a probability of 29.53% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chicago Fire win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.24%) and 2-0 (7.46%). The likeliest Inter Miami win was 1-2 (7.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chicago Fire would win this match.
