Europa League

Europa League | Playoffs | 2nd Leg

Aug 31, 2023 at 7pm UK

Johan Cruijff Arena

Ajax
0 - 1
Ludogorets

(Ajax win 4-2 on aggregate)

Bergwijn (45'), Taylor (56'), Berghuis (74')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Tissera (62')
Heister (55'), Goncalves (71')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Ajax and Ludogorets Razgrad, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ajax

All competitions

Europa League

Last Game: Ludogorets 1-4 Ajax
Thursday, August 24 at 7pm in Europa League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Ludogorets Razgrad

All competitions

Europa League

Last Game: Ludogorets 1-4 Ajax
Thursday, August 24 at 7pm in Europa League

We said: Ajax 3-1 Ludogorets Razgrad (Ajax to win 7-2 on aggregate)

Ludogorets will need to deploy an all-or-nothing approach as they aim to overturn the hefty deficit, but that will leave the visitors exposed at the back. We can see Ludogorets pulling a goal back in the second leg, but we expect the Dutch giants to outscore the Bulgarian champions once again, putting the tie out of reach. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 53.16%. A win for Ludogorets Razgrad had a probability of 26.02% and a draw had a probability of 20.8%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.51%) and 2-0 (6.3%). The likeliest Ludogorets Razgrad win was 1-2 (6.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.59%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.

Result
Ajax	Draw	Ludogorets Razgrad
53.16% ( 0.08)	20.81% ( -0.01)	26.02% ( -0.07)

Both teams to score 67.53% (

-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

69.47% (

0.01)

30.52% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

48.17% (

0.01)

51.82% (

-0.01)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

88.14% (

0.02)

11.85% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

62.87% (

0.05)

37.12% (

-0.05)

Ludogorets Razgrad Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.61% (

-0.04)

23.38% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.63% (

-0.05)

57.36% (

0.05)

Score Analysis

Ajax 53.16%

Ludogorets Razgrad 26.02%

Draw 20.81%

Ajax	Draw	Ludogorets Razgrad
2-1 @ 9.16% ( 0) 3-1 @ 6.51% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 6.3% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 5.91% ( 0) 3-2 @ 4.73% ( 0) 3-0 @ 4.48% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 3.47% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 2.52% ( 0) 4-0 @ 2.39% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.48% ( 0.01) 4-3 @ 1.22% 5-2 @ 1.08% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1.02% ( 0) Other @ 2.88% Total : 53.16%	1-1 @ 8.59% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.65% ( -0) 0-0 @ 2.77% ( -0) 3-3 @ 2.29% ( -0) Other @ 0.5% Total : 20.81%	1-2 @ 6.24% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 4.03% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 3.22% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.02% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 2.93% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.42% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.17% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.1% ( -0) Other @ 2.9% Total : 26.02%