Europa League

Europa League | Third Qualifying Round | 1st Leg

Aug 8, 2023 at 3pm UK

Astana Arena

Astana
2 - 1
Ludogorets

(Ludogorets Razgrad win 6-3 on aggregate)

Tomasevic (40'), Marochkin (53')
Loncar (47'), Beysebekov (66'), Tomasevic (90+3')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Sonko-Sundberg (34')
Goncalves (47'), Verdon (87')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the Europa League Third Qualifying Round clash between Astana and Ludogorets Razgrad.

Form, Standings, Stats

Astana

Last Game: Astana 0-2 Dinamo Zagreb
Wednesday, August 2 at 3pm in Champions League

Ludogorets Razgrad

Last Game: Ljubljana 2-1 Ludogorets
Tuesday, August 1 at 7pm in Champions League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ludogorets Razgrad win with a probability of 49.31%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Astana had a probability of 25.24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ludogorets Razgrad win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.38%) and 0-2 (9.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.09%), while for an Astana win it was 1-0 (7.8%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.

Result
Astana	Draw	Ludogorets Razgrad
25.24% ( -1.23)	25.45% ( -0.41)	49.31% ( 1.64)

Both teams to score 50.72% (

0.17)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.72% (

0.75)

52.28% (

-0.75)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.02% (

0.64)

73.98% (

-0.64)

Astana Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.38% (

-0.63)

35.62% (

0.63)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.61% (

-0.66)

72.38% (

0.65)

Ludogorets Razgrad Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.78% (

1.03)

21.22% (

-1.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.89% (

1.57)

54.11% (

-1.58)

Score Analysis

Astana 25.24%

Ludogorets Razgrad 49.3%

Draw 25.44%

Astana	Draw	Ludogorets Razgrad
1-0 @ 7.8% ( -0.37) 2-1 @ 6.24% ( -0.21) 2-0 @ 4.03% ( -0.27) 3-1 @ 2.15% ( -0.11) 3-2 @ 1.67% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 1.39% ( -0.12) Other @ 1.97% Total : 25.24%	1-1 @ 12.09% ( -0.19) 0-0 @ 7.56% ( -0.23) 2-2 @ 4.84% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.95% Total : 25.44%	0-1 @ 11.71% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 9.38% ( 0.14) 0-2 @ 9.08% ( 0.29) 1-3 @ 4.85% ( 0.22) 0-3 @ 4.69% ( 0.29) 2-3 @ 2.5% ( 0.07) 1-4 @ 1.88% ( 0.14) 0-4 @ 1.82% ( 0.16) 2-4 @ 0.97% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.43% Total : 49.3%