Europa League

Europa League | Group Stage

Sep 21, 2023 at 8pm UK

Merkur Arena

Sturm Graz
1 - 2
Sporting Lisbon

Boving (58')
Gazibegovic (45'), Affengruber (90')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Gyokeres (76'), Coates (84')
Paulinho (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Sturm Graz and Sporting Lisbon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sturm Graz

All competitions

Last Game: Sturm Graz 2-2 Salzburg
Saturday, September 16 at 6.30pm in Austrian Bundesliga

Goals
for

Sporting Lisbon

All competitions

Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 3-0 Moreirense
Sunday, September 17 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Sturm Graz 1-3 Sporting Lisbon

Sturm have got into the habit of winning, while their draw with Salzburg will have felt like a win given the level of opposition. However, Ilzer's side may be overpowered by the quality in the Sporting side, with the visitors arriving in excellent form. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 50.76%. A win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 25.02% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.62%) and 0-2 (8.72%). The likeliest Sturm Graz win was 1-0 (6.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.

Result
Sturm Graz	Draw	Sporting Lisbon
25.02% ( -0.09)	24.21% ( -0.01)	50.76% ( 0.1)

Both teams to score 54.33% (

-0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.58% (

-0.03)

47.42% (

0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.36% (

-0.03)

69.63% (

0.03)

Sturm Graz Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.82% (

-0.09)

33.18% (

0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.22% (

-0.1)

69.78% (

0.1)

Sporting Lisbon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.3% (

0.03)

18.7% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.95% (

0.05)

50.05% (

-0.05)

Score Analysis

Sturm Graz 25.02%

Sporting Lisbon 50.76%

Draw 24.21%

Sturm Graz	Draw	Sporting Lisbon
1-0 @ 6.84% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 6.33% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 3.78% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 2.33% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.95% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 1.39% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.4% Total : 25.02%	1-1 @ 11.47% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.2% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.31% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.09% ( -0) Other @ 0.14% Total : 24.21%	0-1 @ 10.4% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 9.62% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 8.72% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 5.38% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 4.87% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 2.97% ( -0) 1-4 @ 2.25% ( 0) 0-4 @ 2.04% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 1.24% Other @ 3.26% Total : 50.76%