FA Cup

FA Cup | Second Round

Dec 12, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Alexandra Stadium

Crewe
2 - 4
Bristol Rovers

Nevitt (65'), Rowe (73')
Offord (40'), Baker-Richardson (55')

FT(HT: 0-3)

Marquis (18'), Wilson (25'), Evans (42'), Cooney (49' og.)
Marquis (41'), Taylor (65'), Taylor (65')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Crewe Alexandra and Bristol Rovers, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Crewe Alexandra

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: Grimsby Town 2-1 Crewe
Saturday, December 9 at 3pm in League Two

Goals
for

Top scorers

Bristol Rovers

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: Bristol Rovers 1-1 Cheltenham
Saturday, December 9 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Crewe Alexandra 1-1 Bristol Rovers

Crewe are in excellent form and have proven difficult to beat over the past two months, even against sides in the division above. With Mangan potentially coming to the end of his spell in caretaker charge of Bristol Rovers, seeing them into the third round would be a huge achievement after a more-than-respectable set of results in charge, but this looks like it could go to a replay. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bristol Rovers win with a probability of 49.5%. A win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 27.1% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bristol Rovers win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.69%) and 0-2 (7.66%). The likeliest Crewe Alexandra win was 2-1 (6.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bristol Rovers would win this match.

Result
Crewe Alexandra	Draw	Bristol Rovers
27.1% ( 0.01)	23.39% ( 0)	49.5% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 59.05% (

-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.91% (

-0.02)

42.08% (

0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.51% (

-0.02)

64.49% (

0.02)

Crewe Alexandra Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.28% (

-0)

28.72% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.45% (

-0)

64.55%

Bristol Rovers Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.84% (

-0.01)

17.15% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.6% (

-0.02)

47.39% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Crewe Alexandra 27.1%

Bristol Rovers 49.5%

Draw 23.39%

Crewe Alexandra	Draw	Bristol Rovers
2-1 @ 6.76% ( 0) 1-0 @ 6.15% ( 0) 2-0 @ 3.83% ( 0) 3-1 @ 2.81% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.48% 3-0 @ 1.6% ( 0) Other @ 3.48% Total : 27.1%	1-1 @ 10.83% 2-2 @ 5.96% ( -0) 0-0 @ 4.93% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.46% ( -0) Other @ 0.22% Total : 23.39%	1-2 @ 9.55% ( -0) 0-1 @ 8.69% ( 0) 0-2 @ 7.66% ( -0) 1-3 @ 5.61% ( -0) 0-3 @ 4.5% ( -0) 2-3 @ 3.5% ( -0) 1-4 @ 2.47% ( -0) 0-4 @ 1.98% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.54% ( -0) Other @ 3.99% Total : 49.5%