La Liga

La Liga | Gameweek 29

Apr 16, 2023 at 5.30pm UK

Estadio Wanda Metropolitano

Atletico
2 - 1
Almeria

Griezmann (5', 43')
Llorente (77'), Kondogbia (89'), Barrios (90+4')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Baptistao (37')
Babic (28'), Ely (49'), Ramazani (90+4'), Rubi (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's La Liga clash between Atletico Madrid and Almeria, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Madrid

All competitions

Last Game: Rayo Vallecano 1-2 Atletico
Sunday, April 9 at 8pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Almeria

All competitions

Last Game: Almeria 2-1 Valencia
Sunday, April 9 at 5.30pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Atletico Madrid 2-0 Almeria

Given Atletico Madrid's strong defensive record, we expect the hosts to notch a fourth clean-sheet victory in five outings this weekend, piling pressure on Almeria at the opposite end of the table. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 71.94%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for Almeria had a probability of 10.4%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.8%) and 3-0 (9.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.39%), while for an Almeria win it was 0-1 (3.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.

Result
Atletico Madrid	Draw	Almeria
71.94% ( 0.27)	17.66% ( -0.14)	10.4% ( -0.13)

Both teams to score 45.38% (

-0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.25% (

0.23)

43.75% (

-0.23)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.86% (

0.22)

66.14% (

-0.22)

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.2% (

0.13)

10.8% (

-0.13)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

65.17% (

0.3)

34.83% (

-0.29)

Almeria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

50.87% (

-0.11)

49.13% (

0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

15.95% (

-0.08)

84.05% (

0.08)

Score Analysis

Atletico Madrid 71.93%

Almeria 10.4%

Draw 17.66%

Atletico Madrid	Draw	Almeria
2-0 @ 13.14% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 11.8% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 9.75% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 9.34% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 6.93% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 5.43% ( 0.07) 4-1 @ 3.86% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 2.46% ( 0) 5-0 @ 2.42% ( 0.04) 5-1 @ 1.72% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.37% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.72% Total : 71.93%	1-1 @ 8.39% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 5.3% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 3.32% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.65% Total : 17.66%	0-1 @ 3.77% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 2.98% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 1.34% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.31% Total : 10.4%