La Liga

La Liga | Gameweek 28

Apr 9, 2023 at 5.30pm UK

Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos

Almeria
2 - 1
Valencia

Melero (49'), Babic (58')
Chumi (20'), Suarez Charris (23'), Robertone (42')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Castillejo (61')
Foulquier (7'), Perez (86')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's La Liga clash between Almeria and Valencia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Almeria

All competitions

Last Game: Celta Vigo 2-2 Almeria
Sunday, April 2 at 1pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Valencia

All competitions

Last Game: Valencia 1-1 Rayo Vallecano
Monday, April 3 at 8pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Valencia have the third-worst away record in the league this season, so we are finding it tough to back them to secure all three points. Almeria's impressive home form this term makes them the favourites, but we just have a feeling that the points will be shared in this contest. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Almeria win with a probability of 39.19%. A win for Valencia had a probability of 33.66% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.

The most likely scoreline for an Almeria win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.32%) and 2-0 (7.07%). The likeliest Valencia win was 0-1 (9.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Almeria would win this match.

Result
Almeria	Draw	Valencia
39.19% ( -0.2)	27.15% ( 0.02)	33.66% ( 0.18)

Both teams to score 50.17% (

-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.81% (

-0.04)

55.18% (

0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.57% (

-0.03)

76.42% (

0.03)

Almeria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.53% (

-0.13)

27.47% (

0.13)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.04% (

-0.17)

62.96% (

0.17)

Valencia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.17% (

0.1)

30.83% (

-0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.89% (

0.12)

67.11% (

-0.12)

Score Analysis

Almeria 39.19%

Valencia 33.66%

Draw 27.14%

Almeria	Draw	Valencia
1-0 @ 10.94% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 8.32% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 7.07% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 3.58% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 3.05% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 2.11% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.16% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 0.98% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.98% Total : 39.19%	1-1 @ 12.87% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.47% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.89% ( -0) Other @ 0.91% Total : 27.14%	0-1 @ 9.97% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 7.58% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 5.86% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 2.97% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 2.3% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.92% ( 0) Other @ 3.07% Total : 33.66%