League One

League One | Gameweek 23

Dec 21, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Pride Park Stadium

Derby
3 - 1
Lincoln

Hourihane (26'), Wilson (65'), Collins (77')
Hourihane (84'), Collins (90+3')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Mandroiu (45+2' pen.)
Jackson (57'), Vale (85'), Erhahon (89')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's League One clash between Derby County and Lincoln City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Derby 1-1 Wycombe
Saturday, December 16 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Lincoln City

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Lincoln 1-1 Reading
Saturday, December 16 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Derby County 2-1 Lincoln City

With both teams having put together lengthy unbeaten streaks, this should be a competitive fixture. Lincoln will fancy their chances of collecting at least a point, but we feel that the Rams are playing with enough confidence to edge this contest by the odd goal in three. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 66.02%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Lincoln City had a probability of 13.14%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.12%) and 2-1 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.81%), while for a Lincoln City win it was 0-1 (5.07%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Lincoln City
66.02% ( 0.01)	20.84% ( -0)	13.14% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 44.02% (

-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.57% (

-0.01)

50.43% (

0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.64% (

-0.01)

72.36% (

0.01)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.54% (

-0)

14.46%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.58% (

-0)

42.42% (

-0)

Lincoln City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

51.46% (

-0.02)

48.53% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

16.38% (

-0.01)

83.62% (

0.01)

Score Analysis

Derby County 66.02%

Lincoln City 13.14%

Draw 20.84%

Derby County	Draw	Lincoln City
1-0 @ 13.57% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 13.12% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.49% ( -0) 3-0 @ 8.46% ( 0) 3-1 @ 6.12% ( -0) 4-0 @ 4.09% ( 0) 4-1 @ 2.96% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.21% ( -0) 5-0 @ 1.58% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.14% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.07% Other @ 2.22% Total : 66.02%	1-1 @ 9.81% ( -0) 0-0 @ 7.02% ( 0) 2-2 @ 3.43% ( -0) Other @ 0.58% Total : 20.84%	0-1 @ 5.07% ( -0) 1-2 @ 3.55% ( -0) 0-2 @ 1.83% ( -0) Other @ 2.69% Total : 13.14%