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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 59.58%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Reading had a probability of 18.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.95%) and 2-0 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.16%), while for a Reading win it was 0-1 (5.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
Result | ||
Derby County | Draw | Reading |
59.58% ( -0.13) | 21.57% ( -0.02) | 18.85% ( 0.15) |
Both teams to score 54.4% ( 0.32) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.81% ( 0.29) | 43.19% ( -0.29) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.41% ( 0.29) | 65.59% ( -0.29) |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.88% ( 0.05) | 14.12% ( -0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
58.24% ( 0.11) | 41.76% ( -0.11) |
Reading Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
63.35% ( 0.34) | 36.65% ( -0.34) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
26.56% ( 0.33) | 73.44% ( -0.33) |
Score Analysis |
Derby County | Draw | Reading |
1-0 @ 10.13% ( -0.11) 2-1 @ 9.95% ( 0) 2-0 @ 9.92% ( -0.09) 3-1 @ 6.5% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 6.47% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 3.26% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 3.18% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 3.17% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.6% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 1.25% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.24% ( -0) Other @ 2.93% Total : 59.58% | 1-1 @ 10.16% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 5.17% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 5% ( 0.05) 3-3 @ 1.09% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.15% Total : 21.57% | 0-1 @ 5.19% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 5.1% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 2.61% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.71% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 1.67% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.57% Total : 18.85% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Portsmouth | 46 | 28 | 13 | 5 | 78 | 41 | 37 | 97 |
P | Derby CountyDerby | 46 | 28 | 8 | 10 | 78 | 37 | 41 | 92 |
3 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 46 | 25 | 12 | 9 | 86 | 51 | 35 | 87 |
4 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 46 | 25 | 9 | 12 | 89 | 61 | 28 | 84 |
5 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 46 | 22 | 11 | 13 | 79 | 56 | 23 | 77 |
6 | Barnsley | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 82 | 64 | 18 | 76 |
7 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 46 | 20 | 14 | 12 | 65 | 40 | 25 | 74 |
8 | Blackpool | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 65 | 48 | 17 | 73 |
9 | Stevenage | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 57 | 46 | 11 | 71 |
10 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 46 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 60 | 55 | 5 | 65 |
11 | Leyton Orient | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 53 | 55 | -2 | 65 |
12 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 46 | 20 | 10 | 16 | 63 | 56 | 7 | 62 |
13 | Exeter CityExeter | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 46 | 61 | -15 | 61 |
14 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 46 | 17 | 9 | 20 | 57 | 66 | -9 | 60 |
15 | Bristol Rovers | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 52 | 68 | -16 | 57 |
16 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 46 | 11 | 20 | 15 | 64 | 65 | -1 | 53 |
17 | Reading | 46 | 16 | 11 | 19 | 68 | 70 | -2 | 53 |
18 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 46 | 12 | 12 | 22 | 39 | 61 | -22 | 48 |
19 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 46 | 13 | 9 | 24 | 35 | 67 | -32 | 48 |
20 | Burton Albion | 46 | 12 | 10 | 24 | 39 | 67 | -28 | 46 |
R | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 46 | 12 | 8 | 26 | 41 | 65 | -24 | 44 |
R | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 46 | 10 | 13 | 23 | 49 | 72 | -23 | 43 |
R | Port Vale | 46 | 10 | 11 | 25 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 41 |
R | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 46 | 7 | 9 | 30 | 41 | 81 | -40 | 30 |
> League One Full Table |