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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 44.52%. A win for Rochdale had a probability of 27.85% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.68%) and 2-1 (8.63%). The likeliest Rochdale win was 0-1 (9.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood.
Result | ||
AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Rochdale |
44.52% ( 0.27) | 27.63% ( -0.03) | 27.85% ( -0.24) |
Both teams to score 46.44% ( -0.05) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
41.2% | 58.8% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
20.68% ( 0) | 79.32% ( -0) |
AFC Wimbledon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.7% ( 0.14) | 26.3% ( -0.14) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.58% ( 0.18) | 61.42% ( -0.18) |
Rochdale Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
63.01% ( -0.19) | 36.99% ( 0.19) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
26.22% ( -0.19) | 73.77% ( 0.19) |
Score Analysis |
AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Rochdale |
1-0 @ 12.99% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 8.68% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 8.63% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 3.86% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 3.84% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 1.91% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.29% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.28% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.03% Total : 44.52% | 1-1 @ 12.92% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 9.73% 2-2 @ 4.29% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.69% Total : 27.63% | 0-1 @ 9.67% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 6.43% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 4.81% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 2.13% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 1.6% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 1.42% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.79% Total : 27.85% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Stockport CountyStockport | 46 | 27 | 11 | 8 | 96 | 48 | 48 | 92 |
P | Wrexham | 46 | 26 | 10 | 10 | 89 | 52 | 37 | 88 |
P | Mansfield TownMansfield | 46 | 24 | 14 | 8 | 90 | 47 | 43 | 86 |
4 | MK Dons | 46 | 23 | 9 | 14 | 83 | 68 | 15 | 78 |
5 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 46 | 21 | 8 | 17 | 73 | 68 | 5 | 71 |
6 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 69 | 65 | 4 | 71 |
7 | Crawley TownCrawley | 46 | 21 | 7 | 18 | 73 | 67 | 6 | 70 |
8 | BarrowBarrow | 46 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 62 | 56 | 6 | 69 |
9 | Bradford CityBradford | 46 | 19 | 12 | 15 | 61 | 59 | 2 | 69 |
10 | AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 64 | 51 | 13 | 65 |
11 | Walsall | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 69 | 73 | -4 | 65 |
12 | Gillingham | 46 | 18 | 10 | 18 | 46 | 57 | -11 | 64 |
13 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 46 | 17 | 12 | 17 | 60 | 69 | -9 | 63 |
14 | Notts County | 46 | 18 | 7 | 21 | 89 | 86 | 3 | 61 |
15 | Morecambe | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 67 | 81 | -14 | 58 |
16 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 46 | 17 | 6 | 23 | 67 | 70 | -3 | 57 |
17 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 63 | 71 | -8 | 57 |
18 | Newport CountyNewport | 46 | 16 | 7 | 23 | 62 | 76 | -14 | 55 |
19 | Swindon TownSwindon | 46 | 14 | 12 | 20 | 77 | 83 | -6 | 54 |
20 | Salford City | 46 | 13 | 12 | 21 | 66 | 82 | -16 | 51 |
21 | Grimsby Town | 46 | 11 | 16 | 19 | 57 | 74 | -17 | 49 |
22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 46 | 11 | 12 | 23 | 59 | 80 | -21 | 45 |
R | Sutton UnitedSutton | 46 | 9 | 15 | 22 | 59 | 84 | -25 | 42 |
R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 46 | 11 | 9 | 26 | 44 | 78 | -34 | 42 |
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