Coppa Italia | Round of 16

Jan 2, 2024 at 8pm UK

Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

AC Milan
4 - 1
Cagliari

Jovic (29', 42'), Traore (50'), Leao (90+1')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Azzi (87')
Di Pardo (59'), Deiola (70'), Azzi (88')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Coppa Italia clash between AC Milan and Cagliari, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AC Milan

All competitions

Last Game: AC Milan 1-0 Sassuolo
Saturday, December 30 at 5pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Cagliari

All competitions

Coppa Italia

Last Game: Cagliari 0-0 Empoli
Saturday, December 30 at 2pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: AC Milan 3-1 Cagliari

Given Cagliari's defensive deficiencies - clearly apparent when losing at home to Milan earlier this season - and their lack of fortitude when on the road, even a much-changed Milan side should safely secure a place in the Coppa Italia quarter-finals. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 58.43%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Cagliari had a probability of 19.04%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.4%) and 2-1 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.7%), while for a Cagliari win it was 0-1 (5.79%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.

Result
AC Milan	Draw	Cagliari
58.43% ( 0)	22.52% ( -0)	19.04% ( -0)

Both teams to score 51.65% (

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.98% (

0.01)

47.01% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.74% (

0.01)

69.26% (

-0.01)

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.22% (

15.77% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.1% (

0.01)

44.9% (

-0.01)

Cagliari Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.33% (

38.67% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.59% (

75.41% (

-0)

Score Analysis

AC Milan 58.43%

Cagliari 19.04%

Draw 22.52%

AC Milan	Draw	Cagliari
1-0 @ 11.26% 2-0 @ 10.4% 2-1 @ 9.88% 3-0 @ 6.4% ( 0) 3-1 @ 6.09% ( 0) 4-0 @ 2.96% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.89% ( 0) 4-1 @ 2.81% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.34% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1.09% 5-1 @ 1.04% ( 0) Other @ 2.27% Total : 58.43%	1-1 @ 10.7% 0-0 @ 6.1% ( -0) 2-2 @ 4.7% 3-3 @ 0.92% ( 0) Other @ 0.11% Total : 22.52%	0-1 @ 5.79% ( -0) 1-2 @ 5.08% ( -0) 0-2 @ 2.75% 1-3 @ 1.61% 2-3 @ 1.49% Other @ 2.32% Total : 19.04%