Copa del Rey | Semi-Finals | 2nd Leg

Feb 29, 2024 at 8.30pm UK

San Mames Barria

Athletic Bilbao
3 - 0
Atletico

(Athletic Bilbao win 4-0 on aggregate)

Williams (13'), Williams (42'), Guruzeta (61')
Ruiz de Galarreta (40'), Muniain (45+3'), Lekue (66'), de Marcos (74')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Hermoso (28')

The Match

Match Report

Athletic Bilbao book their spot in the final of the Copa del Rey against Mallorca courtesy of a 4-0 aggregate success over Atletico Madrid.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa del Rey clash between Athletic Bilbao and Atletico Madrid, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Athletic Bilbao

All competitions

Copa del Rey

Last Game: Betis 3-1 Athletic Bilbao
Sunday, February 25 at 3.15pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Atletico Madrid

All competitions

Copa del Rey

Last Game: Almeria 2-2 Atletico
Saturday, February 24 at 8pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 45.79%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 28.8% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.21%) and 2-0 (7.97%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 (7.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.07%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.

Result
Athletic Bilbao	Draw	Atletico Madrid
45.79% ( 0.28)	25.41% ( 0.16)	28.8% ( -0.44)

Both teams to score 53.59% (

-0.79)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.15% (

-0.91)

49.85% (

0.91)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.15% (

-0.82)

71.84% (

0.82)

Athletic Bilbao Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.23% (

-0.25)

21.77% (

0.25)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.04% (

-0.39)

54.95% (

0.39)

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.5% (

-0.79)

31.5% (

0.79)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.12% (

-0.92)

67.88% (

0.92)

Score Analysis

Athletic Bilbao 45.78%

Atletico Madrid 28.8%

Draw 25.41%

Athletic Bilbao	Draw	Atletico Madrid
1-0 @ 10.45% ( 0.31) 2-1 @ 9.21% ( 0) 2-0 @ 7.97% ( 0.17) 3-1 @ 4.68% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 4.05% ( 0.06) 3-2 @ 2.7% ( -0.08) 4-1 @ 1.78% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 1.54% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.03% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.36% Total : 45.78%	1-1 @ 12.07% ( 0.09) 0-0 @ 6.85% ( 0.25) 2-2 @ 5.32% ( -0.12) 3-3 @ 1.04% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.41%	0-1 @ 7.92% ( 0.12) 1-2 @ 6.98% ( -0.1) 0-2 @ 4.58% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 2.69% ( -0.1) 2-3 @ 2.05% ( -0.09) 0-3 @ 1.76% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.83% Total : 28.8%