Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 6

Sep 28, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Stadio Comunale

Genoa
4 - 1
Roma

Gudmundsson (5'), Retegui (45'), Thorsby (74'), Messias (81')
Strootman (26'), Sabelli (37'), Retegui (65'), Bani (75')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Cristante (22')
Mancini (42'), Paredes (75'), Aouar (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Serie A clash between Genoa and Roma, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Genoa

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Lecce 1-0 Genoa
Friday, September 22 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Roma

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Torino 1-1 Roma
Sunday, September 24 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

With Genoa averaging fewer than a goal per game so far - and lagging behind in the possession stats - some sharp finishing from one of Roma's top-notch forwards could prove fatal to the Grifone's hopes of a first home win. Their most recent victory at Marassi was in the Coppa Italia early last month, and that wait will surely go on. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 40.29%. A win for Genoa had a probability of 30.66% and a draw had a probability of 29%.

The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.94%) and 1-2 (7.92%). The likeliest Genoa win was 1-0 (11.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood.

Result
Genoa	Draw	Roma
30.66% ( 0.52)	29.04% ( 0.09)	40.29% ( -0.6)

Both teams to score 43.94% (

-0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

37.42% (

-0.15)

62.58% (

0.15)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

17.84% (

-0.11)

82.16% (

0.11)

Genoa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.16% (

0.31)

36.84% (

-0.31)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.37% (

0.31)

73.63% (

-0.31)

Roma Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.57% (

-0.43)

30.42% (

0.43)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.37% (

-0.51)

66.62% (

0.51)

Score Analysis

Genoa 30.66%

Roma 40.29%

Draw 29.03%

Genoa	Draw	Roma
1-0 @ 11.19% ( 0.16) 2-1 @ 6.65% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 5.59% ( 0.13) 3-1 @ 2.21% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 1.86% ( 0.06) 3-2 @ 1.32% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.84% Total : 30.66%	1-1 @ 13.31% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 11.2% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 3.96% ( -0) Other @ 0.56% Total : 29.03%	0-1 @ 13.33% ( -0.08) 0-2 @ 7.94% ( -0.14) 1-2 @ 7.92% ( -0.07) 0-3 @ 3.15% ( -0.1) 1-3 @ 3.14% ( -0.07) 2-3 @ 1.57% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 0.94% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 0.94% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.37% Total : 40.29%