Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 53.77%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Marseille had a probability of 22.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.78%) and 2-0 (9.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.15%), while for a Marseille win it was 0-1 (6.37%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.
Result | ||
Lille | Draw | Marseille |
53.77% ( 0.13) | 23.54% ( 0.04) | 22.69% ( -0.16) |
Both teams to score 53.83% ( -0.33) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.2% ( -0.33) | 46.8% ( 0.33) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.94% ( -0.31) | 69.06% ( 0.31) |
Lille Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.67% ( -0.07) | 17.33% ( 0.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
52.3% ( -0.13) | 47.7% ( 0.13) |
Marseille Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.12% ( -0.33) | 34.88% ( 0.33) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.38% ( -0.35) | 71.62% ( 0.35) |
Score Analysis |
Lille | Draw | Marseille |
1-0 @ 10.59% ( 0.12) 2-1 @ 9.78% ( -0) 2-0 @ 9.29% ( 0.08) 3-1 @ 5.72% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 5.43% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 3.01% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 2.5% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 2.38% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.32% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.76% Total : 53.77% | 1-1 @ 11.15% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.04% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 5.15% ( -0.05) 3-3 @ 1.06% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.13% Total : 23.53% | 0-1 @ 6.37% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 5.88% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 3.35% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.06% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 1.81% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.05% Total : 22.69% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 34 | 22 | 10 | 2 | 81 | 33 | 48 | 76 |
2 | MonacoMonaco | 34 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 42 | 26 | 67 |
3 | Brest | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 53 | 34 | 19 | 61 |
4 | Lille | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 52 | 34 | 18 | 59 |
5 | Nice | 34 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 40 | 29 | 11 | 55 |
6 | Lyon | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 49 | 55 | -6 | 53 |
7 | Lens | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 45 | 37 | 8 | 51 |
8 | Marseille | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 52 | 41 | 11 | 50 |
9 | Reims | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 42 | 47 | -5 | 47 |
10 | Rennes | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 53 | 46 | 7 | 46 |
11 | Toulouse | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 42 | 46 | -4 | 43 |
12 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 43 | 48 | -5 | 41 |
13 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 39 |
14 | NantesNantes | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 30 | 55 | -25 | 33 |
15 | Le HavreLe Havre | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 32 |
16 | Metz | 34 | 8 | 5 | 21 | 35 | 58 | -23 | 29 |
R | Lorient | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 43 | 66 | -23 | 29 |
R | Clermont | 34 | 5 | 10 | 19 | 26 | 60 | -34 | 25 |
> Ligue 1 Full Table |