Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 19

Jan 27, 2024 at 4pm UK

Allianz Riviera

Nice
1 - 0
Metz

Guessand (77' pen.)
Bard (61')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Sabaly (57')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Ligue 1 clash between Nice and Metz, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nice

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Bordeaux 2-3 Nice
Saturday, January 20 at 4.30pm in Coupe de France

Goals
for

Top scorers

Metz

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Metz 0-1 Toulouse
Sunday, January 14 at 2pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Not having their top goalscorer in Moffi available will be difficult for Nice, but Les Aiglons have proven countless times over this campaign that they can hold down the fort and grind out a victory. As for Metz, they seem low on confidence and struggling to find solutions in the attack, and we believe they will have a difficult time breaking down a defensive unit as stable as Nice. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nice win with a probability of 60.97%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Metz had a probability of 16.26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nice win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.07%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.74%), while for a Metz win it was 0-1 (6.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Nice in this match.

Result
Nice	Draw	Metz
60.97% ( 0.57)	22.77% ( -0.04)	16.26% ( -0.54)

Both teams to score 45.68% (

-0.96)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.73% (

-0.7)

52.27% (

0.7)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.03% (

-0.61)

73.97% (

0.61)

Nice Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.26% (

-0.05)

16.74% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.35% (

-0.09)

46.65% (

0.09)

Metz Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

54.86% (

-1.12)

45.14% (

1.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

18.96% (

-0.9)

81.04% (

0.9)

Score Analysis

Nice 60.97%

Metz 16.26%

Draw 22.77%

Nice	Draw	Metz
1-0 @ 13.5% ( 0.35) 2-0 @ 12.07% ( 0.3) 2-1 @ 9.6% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 7.19% ( 0.16) 3-1 @ 5.72% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 3.21% ( 0.07) 4-1 @ 2.56% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.28% ( -0.09) 5-0 @ 1.15% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.02% ( -0.04) 5-1 @ 0.91% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.75% Total : 60.97%	1-1 @ 10.74% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 7.55% ( 0.21) 2-2 @ 3.82% ( -0.15) Other @ 0.66% Total : 22.77%	0-1 @ 6.01% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 4.27% ( -0.16) 0-2 @ 2.39% ( -0.08) 1-3 @ 1.13% ( -0.08) 2-3 @ 1.01% ( -0.07) Other @ 1.44% Total : 16.26%